North American Plants Zero in on 18 Million Available Production

With just a little overtime, North American manufacturers could build 18 million light vehicles in 2014 if they choose to, according to WardsAuto’s latest analysis of available production.

Assuming suppliers can keep up the pace, plants building LVs will have the ability to assemble 17.8 million units without overtime in 2014, highest for any year since WardsAuto started tracking the data in 2005, when automakers could build 17.5 million units on straight time.

WardsAuto forecasts North American LV production will total 16.7 million units in 2014, a healthy 93% of total available production.

Available production is defined as straight-time capacity based on the number of crews or shifts, and days per year a plant typically works. The total deducts volume for tooling changes resulting in lengthy plant shutdowns.

Forecast 2014 available production is 900,000 units above 2013’s 16.9 million, and a major increase from the recession year of 2009 when the total bottomed out at 13.8 million.

About 285,000 units of the year-over-year increase in 2014 will come from the addition of two new plants in Mexico for Honda and Mazda.

Mazda’s facility in Salamanca began production this month of the Mazda3 for North America and export markets. The plant adds the Mazda2 in September. For 2014, Mazda’s available production is estimated at 139,000.

After it adds production of a version of the Mazda2 for Toyota and a small Mazda CUV dubbed CX-3 in 2015, the plant will have annual straight-time capability of 200,000 units.

Honda’s Celaya facility in April starts building the redesigned Fit small car and adds a Fit-based CUV in October. Available production in 2014 at Celaya is 144,000 units, but rises to 190,000 annually by 2016 following the addition of another Honda small car next year.

Honda will have straight-time production capability of 1.94 million LVs in 2014 and reaches 2 million annually by 2016.

Other increases will come from the first full year of production at Nissan’s Aguascalientes 2 plant, which opened in fourth-quarter 2013 building Nissan Sentra. The plant adds the Versa Note small car later this year and will have available output of 175,000 units annually.

Plants that will have more available production in 2014 through capacity increases include BMW’s Spartanburg, SC, facility; Daimler-Vance, AL; Honda-Greensburg, IN; Nissan-Canton, MS; and Subaru-Lafayette, IN.

Also, Chrysler’s Toledo North plant has additional capacity this year due to the new Jeep Cherokee being in production for a full year. The plant closed for parts of 2012 and 2013 to retool for the Cherokee.

The same is true for Ford’s Kansas City 1 plant, closed since 2012 but starting production in April of the new Transit fullsize van. However, the increase from Kansas City will be partially offset by a reduction in LV capacity at Ford’s Avon Lake, OH, plant.

Avon Lake currently assembles the E-Series van that eventually will be replaced by the Transit. Part of the plant shuts this summer to retool for Ford F-650/750 medium-duty trucks currently built in Mexico by the manufacturer’s Blue Diamond joint venture with Navistar.

Ford also has increases at its Flat Rock, MI, plant, where it added Ford Fusion output last year, and at Kansas City 2, where a third-crew system will be online for a full year after being added in first-half 2013.

Overall, Ford still will have an increase in available LV production this year to 3.20 million from 2.99 million in 2013.

By segment, North American manufacturers will have more available production for small cars, luxury cars, CUVs, pickups and vans. There will be slight declines in SUVs and midsize cars.

The hike in small cars comes mostly from Honda and Mazda’s new plants.

The increase in pickups mostly is due to GM’s return to the small-pickup segment in the U.S. later this year when it starts production of the Chevrolet Colorado and GMC Canyon in Wentzville after a 2-year hiatus for the vehicles. Ford also will have more straight-time capability for the F-150 large pickup because of the 3-crew schedule at Kansas City 2.

Full-year production of the Jeep Cherokee, first-time sourcing of the Nissan Rogue in North America and BMW’s capacity expansion comprise most of the increase in CUVs.

An influx of luxury-car availability is spread among several manufacturers, highlighted by increases at GM for the Cadillac ELR and Chevrolet Corvette. However, a big thrust comes from the addition in June of first-time North American production of the Mercedes C-Class, which will be assembled at Daimler’s Vance plant.

Meantime, LV capacity utilization, or production as a percent of straight-time capacity based on 2-shift, 5-day workweek schedules for all North American plants, ended 2013 at 97.7%, well above 2012’s 92.9% and the 57.6% of 2009.

Capacity utilization is forecast at 98.0% in 2014, and expected to continue rising in 2015 and 2016 as manufacturers continue to squeeze more production from fewer plants.

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