Q2 Gaining Traction

The auto industry's first look at April-June plans show North American assembly plants will be running at a quicker pace than they have been in recent months, but output still will trail year-ago by 4.2%.

In their first crack at second-quarter production planning, auto makers have scheduled 4,094,900 cars and trucks for completion, or 64,998 units daily. That equals a 3.1% gain from the estimated January-March pace of 63,059 daily on a revised volume of 3,972,700 units. Although the actual number of work days varies by country, the North American average equals 63 days in each period.

However, the industry's second-quarter slate marks a 5.7% decline from year-ago's daily average of 68,940 on each of 62 work days, when the plants turned out 4,274,300 vehicles.

Overall, first-half output this year now is expected to tally just 8,067,600 units, some 493,900 less than the 8,561,500 built in January-June 2006.

Not surprisingly, Detroit's auto makers come out on the losing end of the equation with output running at 91.4% of the year-earlier pace compared with 100.6% for transplants.

General Motors Corp.'s planned second-quarter volume represents a 4.2% decline from year-ago, but a marked improvement from the 13.1% first-quarter drop. GM's plants still will operate at only 91.3% of its year-ago volume in the first half of 2007.

Struggling Ford Motor Co.'s plants will build to only 85.2% of year-ago's pace in January-June, on planned output of 1,418,100 vehicles compared with 1,664,100. That includes a 14.1% shortfall in April-June and a 15.4% falloff in the first quarter.

Chrysler Group comes closest to matching year-ago for the first half. A modest 1.6% decline in April-June, coupled with a 0.2% decline in the first quarter, has Chrysler's North American plants turning out 1,353,500 units in January-June, or 99.1% of the 1,366,100 built in like-2006.

Among the transplant producers, Toyota Motor Engineering and Mfg. North America Inc. plans to operate its plants at 107.7% of its year-ago pace in the year's first half, while Honda of America Mfg. Inc. plans to operate at 107.2%.

However, not all transplants are booming.

Volkswagen de Mexico S.A. de C.V. plans call for building at only 70.4% of its like-2006 pace in the first half; Nissan North America Inc. is set to operate at 92.1%; New United Motor Mfg. Inc. at 89.2% of year-ago; CAMI Automotive Inc. at 98.7%; and BMW Mfg. Co. at 92.3% of its prior-year pace.