Q4 Output Steady

If Unifor, the Canadian auto workers union, persuades Ford and FCA Canada to accept the pact recently signed with GM, avoiding strike action, North American car and truck production will remain on track to reach a record 18 million-plus units. 

However, any shutdown would threaten the output benchmark, increased to 18,245,900 units in this month’s round of production reviews, from the 18,217,000 slated for completion a month ago, a gain of 28,900 units.

Most of that gain already has been achieved via a 19,300-unit hike in estimated third-quarter assemblies that saw the automakers finalize the August count at a whopping 54,600 vehicles ahead of plan. But half of that increase was pulled ahead from September, now estimated at a level 25,800 units short of its prior goal.

Also, the industry’s latest fourth-quarter plan shows a net gain of 31,300 units, rising to 4,462,500 vehicles, or 0.7% more than the 4,431,200 built the prior year.

Compared with a month earlier, Q4 output is up by 4,300 vehicles.

The overall Q4 output changes include a 24,000-unit reduction in cars and a 28,300-unit increase in truck assemblies, mostly the result of Volkswagen separating 23,500 light-truck assemblies previously included in its scheduled car output figures.

Thus the actual increase in October-December truck production is a modest 4,800 vehicles divided among several manufacturers.

Based on their latest plans, transplant automakers will end the year with 8,521,900 completions, a 3.9% increase from the prior year’s 8,199,200 units and their production share will increase slightly to 46.7% from 45.7%.

The Detroit Three are set to build 9,375,400 cars and trucks this year, a mere 0.5% gain on 2015 with a market share decline to 54.1% from  prior-year’s 52.0%.

Dedicated medium- and heavy-duty truck makers, at 348,600 units, will achieve only 82.5% of their 2015 volume and their share will fall to 1.9% from 2.4%.

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