Q4 Update: More Trucks, Fewer Cars

North American assembly plants are slated to build an additional 10,900 vehicles in the fourth-quarter compared with industry plans a month ago, despite an estimated 14,500-unit October shortfall.

In their latest round of scheduling meetings, the industry’s production planners raised the bar for November-December by 25,600 units, more than offsetting October’s underbuild to keep the plants tacking toward a Q4 record of 4,414,900 assemblies, or 2.0% more than the 4,327,600 completions posted in like-2014.

The revised Q4 slate again sees truck output gaining at the expense of car production as consumers’ continue their preference for pickups, CUVs and SUVs.

The 2,676,400 trucks now slated for assembly in Q4, mark a 39,200-unit increase from the 2,637,200 vehicles booked for completion a month ago, while car production has been cut by 28,300 units, to 1,738,500 from 1,766,800 at the beginning of October.

However, that cutback is due in part to 12,600 units of Tesla’s new CUV having previously been included with its car tally.

Beyond Tesla,  Ford’s first actual Q4 production slate shows car output for the period 19,100 units lower than had earlier been forecast earlier, with most of the difference, 15,900 units, added to the automaker’s truck plan.

General Motors, on the other hand, has boosted its Q4 car assemblies by 11,800 units, including a September overbuild of 3,200 cars, while truck assemblies have been pared by 3,700 vehicles, 3,000 of which have been taken from the December slate.

Honda also has boosted its October-December car tally by a net 7,100 units, with a December cut of 1,000 cars partially offsetting an estimated 8,100-unit October overbuild.

At the same time, Honda is boosting light-truck production by 6,600, again due to a 7,600-unit October overbuild trimmed slightly by a December cutback.

Meanwhile, Toyota is adding 6,400 trucks to its Q4 game plan, while eliminating 1,900 cars, even as Volkswagen, for now is leaving its Q4 slate intact after building 16,700 fewer vehicles than scheduled in September.

The strengthened Q4 tally keeps the industry headed toward a record year-end wrapup, now pegged at 17,928,600 cars and trucks, a gain of 2.9% from prior year’s 17,415,500 completions.

FCA, Ford and GM are set to end the year with  9,235,200 completions combined, 1.1% more than in 2014.

The 8,264,700 transplant assemblies on tap for 2015 represent a 4.9% increase on the prior year, while dedicated medium- and heavy-duty truck makers are set for an 8.6% increase, to 428,700 vehicles in 2015.

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