Record Q3 Output Slated

If all goes according to current schedules, North American car and truck plants will roll a record 4,574,800 vehicles off the assembly lines in July-September, besting the year-old benchmark of 4,282,526 by 6.8%.

The robust third-quarter plan combined with a Q2 volume, now set at a fourth-best 4,627,300 units, and a third-best Q1 performance means vehicle production in the first nine months of the year will reach 13,586,200 units, just a hair away from beating the record 13,593,591 cars and trucks built in like-2000.

This year’s plan also represents a 3.8% gain over the 13,087,900 vehicles turned out in the first nine months of 2014, now fourth-best behind 1999’s 13,186,310 assemblies.

July-September’s lively assembly pace includes 2,720,600 trucks, a 6.5% gain in prior-year’s 2,554,900 completions. At least part of the boost is due to a robust output at FCA’s Windsor, ON, Canada, plant, previously down for a lengthy model changeover that concluded only in late May. Q3 output there is planned at a level 12.1% ahead of like-2014.

With 1,083,100 units slated, car production is 4.2% better than the 1,039,100 units built in July-September a year ago.

Five producers have set Q3 output schedules trailing year-ago, including a modest 5,000-unit FCA shortfall as a modest increase in trucks offset by a decline in car assemblies.

Also on the down side is Hyundai, off 2.1% and Kia, posting a 5.1% shortfall due largely to model changeover downtime, as well as low-volume Tesla, down 5.4% and Mitsubishi, off 19.9%.

Dedicated medium- and heavy-duty truck makers also have set initial third-quarter output at a level 6.0% below year-ago.  

On the plus side, General Motors has slated 865,000 vehicles for Q3 completion, 4.5% ahead of like 2014’s 827,500 units. Light trucks account for 66.5% of the slate this year, virtually the same as a year ago.

Although Ford has yet to announce official July-September plans, WardsAuto forecasts the Dearborn automaker for a 4.5% year-over-year increase, with trucks accounting for two-thirds of the total each year.

Transplant leader Toyota plans to build 489,000 vehicles in the quarter, a 4.7% increase over like-2014 with Nissan hot on its heels with 480,500 cars and trucks set for completion this year, 14.5% more than were built a year earlier.

Total transplant assemblies in the first nine months equal 6,318,400 vehicles, a 7.5% increase over like-2014. That gives them a 46.5% share of industry output compared with 44.9% a year earlier.

Combined FCA, Ford and GM production is 6,961,700 units, 0.6% better than a year earlier, but the production share slips to 51.2% from 52.9%.

Dedicated medium- and heavy-duty trucks producers plan to build 306,100 vehicles in January-September, a 2.3% industry share compared with 2.2% in like-2014, when they built 291,600 trucks.   

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