Thermonuclear Pickup Truck Wars

Who has the smartest strategy when it comes to the pickup segment in the U.S. market? Is it Ford with its aluminum F-150, or GM with its new midsize trucks? They are taking different approaches to meeting fuel economy regulations. And they’re both taking big risks.

Ford is juggling a lot of variables. Will its manufacturing lines and supply chain really ramp up to full speed seamlessly using all-new aluminum processes? Will the service and repair industry keep up with these new processes, so the F-150 can retain long-term loyalty?

What if customers really aren’t sold on the idea of an aluminum truck? Remember, the F-150 is the single largest source of profit for Ford and if the new one doesn’t sell it can jeopardize all of Ford’s future capital spending plans.

GM is taking on a Herculean task. It’s trying to singlehandedly revive the midsize pickup segment. It has to. Its new midsize trucks will undoubtedly cannibalize some sales from its full-size pickups. So unless it sells more than enough midsize trucks to make up for that loss, its strategy will have backfired.

Over the past three decades Chevrolet, GMC, Ford, Dodge, Mazda, Mitsubishi, Isuzu, Subaru and Volkswagen all have dabbled with and ultimately quit trying to sell small trucks in the U.S. It’s a tough segment. Today only the Toyota Tacoma, Nissan Frontier and Honda Ridgeline are left. But the Tacoma and Frontier are nearly a decade old and not quite up to snuff with the latest developments. And unless Honda effectively revamps the Ridgeline, it’s not a threat to anyone.

That’s opened the door for the midsize Chevrolet Colorado and GMC Canyon. They’re quieter, smoother riding, can carry a heavier payload and tow bigger loads, yet are more fuel efficient than Toyota and Nissan trucks. Surprisingly, there are 12.5 million owners driving around in older midsize pickups. That’s a lot of potential buyers for GM to tap into.

Even though GM calls its new entries “midsize” they’re actually quite big. The largest versions offer a wheelbase of 140.5 inches (3,569 mm) and a bed that’s 6 ft. 2 ins. (1,880 mm). Top-line versions can haul 1,560 pounds (708 kg) and tow 7,000 pounds (3,175 kg). Even though a V-6 version only gets 1 mpg more than the fullsize V-6 trucks, they cost $6,000 to $10,000 less than a comparably equipped fullsize pickup. These specs are going to lure a lot of buyers away from the big ones. But how many more?

Meanwhile, Ford spent a fortune bringing its aluminum-intensive truck to market. Not only has the more-expensive material driven up costs, it spent another fortune revamping its stamping plants and body shops to be able to manufacture it.

Nothing threatens quality ratings like adding new variables and Ford just added a lot: New design, new material and new manufacturing processes. If its truck plants get up to line speed without a major hiccup it will be a small miracle.

But what choice did either automaker have? The law is the law and they both have to significantly ramp up fuel efficiency. Diesels offer one route, but they’re expensive. Hybrid-electric trucks have been a dismal sales failure. That leaves lightweighting and downsizing, and we’re about to see those strategies play out, one by Ford, one by General Motors.

My gut tells me Ford will do just fine. It could hit some speed bumps as it tries to get to line speed, but customers will welcome a pickup that handles and brakes better, offers more capability and delivers better fuel economy.

GM is taking the bigger gamble. It has to protect the sales of its fullsize trucks at the same time it brings in a lot of midsize buyers. I mean a lot. And you can be sure Toyota and Nissan are not going to sit by idly while this happens. But if GM can grow its overall pickup sales by 100,000 units or so, it can legitimately declare victory.

This is going to be the greatest sales battle in the U.S. in 2015. And while both strategies could turn out to be successful, that’s not the way it usually works. We’ll probably have a clear idea of whose strategy is the smartest by the time of the summer solstice.

John McElroy is editorial director of Blue Sky Productions and producer of the “Autoline” PBS television show and “Autoline Daily,” the online video newscast.