Top 25 Boasts New Faces, But Group as Powerful as Ever

Tracking the performance of the best players has always been a part of sports, pop culture and business reporting.

In the automotive business, the Top 25 vehicle-sales leaders do not generate the media buzz of NCAA basketball top seeds or this year’s top 12 on American Idol.

Yet, they are a powerful force in the U.S. vehicle market, consistently setting the cadence of sales performance within the current market expansion. The group also is important for North American employment, as all of the current models are assembled within the region.

How important? This elite group generated 45% of all vehicle sales during the first quarter, maintaining their share established last year, and one that is significantly higher than in 2006 – a benchmark year of peak sales performance. (Their share is still 35% if you exclude the perennial Large Pickup leaders.)

Conversely, it takes more than 200 additional makes to generate the balance of vehicle sales – a promotional and incentive burden for most manufacturers.

The makeup of the best-seller group has not been static. Since 2006, changing consumer preferences have resulted in new players on the Top 25 leaderboard.

On the car side, the Ford Fusion, Hyundai Elantra, Nissan Sentra and Chrysler 200 have displaced iconic larger makes. More recently, the Toyota Prius has missed the cut, and CUVs clearly have displaced minivans as the family truck of choice.

The names have changed; but, the message is the same: The top 25 are the market’s movers and shakers.

For the first quarter, casual sales watchers would presume light trucks are the only movers shaking up the market. Top 25 aficionados know better.

Cars are contributing significant sales volume, holding light trucks in check at 52.7% of the group’s mix. In fact, four car models have registered double-digit sales growth year-over-year: the Chrysler 200, Nissan Sentra, Toyota Corolla and Hyundai Sonata.

If the Top 25 are doing so well, then why are overall sales somewhat erratic? The answer: The sales performance of cars outside the Top 25.

Overall, car sales are flat this year, falling to 46.5% of vehicle sales. Mainstream car makes outside the Top 25 really are infected with the “falling sales” bug. Over 55% of mainstream car makes saw sales declines in the first quarter. Premium cars are not immune, with 50% in the red. The breadth of the decline is fairly serious.

The Top 25 is a powerful group. Yet, even these superstars may not have enough sales momentum to overcome the negative forces holding the 17 million market at bay.

If 2015 is going to be classified as a success story, let alone hit 17 million units, then the other car players need to pick up the pace.

Warren P. Browne is president of WP Browne Consulting and has extensive experience in the global automobile industry. During the past 20 years, he has held senior executive positions at General Motors, including in Brazil, Poland and Russia. He currently serves as an adjunct professor of economics at Lawrence Technological University.