U.K. Coalition Outlines Future of Hydrogen-Powered Cars

More than 1.6 million hydrogen-fuel-cell electric vehicles could be on U.K. roads by 2030, but a new government report says a network of refueling stations is key to the successful introduction of the FCEVs.

The UK H2 Mobility project, established to evaluate the benefits of FCEVs to the U.K. and to develop a roadmap for the introduction of the vehicles and a refueling infrastructure, says the rollout should strike a balance between maximum consumer convenience and the investment required.

The project involves three government agencies, the departments of Business, Innovation and Skills; Transport; and Energy and Climate Change. Also participating is the European Fuel Cells & Hydrogen Joint Undertaking and auto makers including Daimler, Hyundai, Nissan and Toyota.

“In the market conditions assumed in the UK H2 Mobility roadmap, the (hydrogen-refueling-station) network as a whole will not be profitable initially but will be able to cover its operating costs by the early 2020s and to reach breakeven in the late 2020s,” the report says.

In the roadmap, HRS financing needed up to the break-even point is £418 million ($645.6 million), with £62 million ($95.7 million) required before 2020.

The analysis and network modeling indicates 65 stations across the U.K. could provide sufficient initial coverage to start the market, covering major population centers with more than one HRS in each and along connecting roads.

Thereafter, the network develops and extends in line with the demand for hydrogen by vehicle owners/users. The roadmap shows U.K.-wide coverage with 1,150 stations by 2030, providing close-to-home refueling for the whole of the region.

The cost savings from reduced damage to human health and the environment is £100 million to £200 million ($154.4 million to $308.8 million) annually by 2050, depending on the rate of growth of FCEVs in the total fleet after 2030.

On top of the environmental and energy-security benefits, switching from imported fossil fuels to hydrogen made domestically would deliver a £1.3 billion ($2 billion) annual benefit to the U.K. economy by 2030.

“Successful commercialization of the technology will require government to work in strong partnership with industry,” Business and Energy Minister Michael Fallon says in a statement. “Prompt action is needed to ensure the potential benefits are realized by businesses and consumers in the U.K., and work on the next phase will start straight away.”

A fleet of 1.6 million FCEVs could be achieved by 2030 as the vehicles become cost-competitive and the refueling-station network develops. Annual sales could exceed 300,000 by then, according to UK H2 Mobility.

Early demand will be driven by the 10% of the population attracted to and willing to buy FCEVs at the prevailing total cost of ownership. These early adopters would generate annual sales of about 10,000 FCEVs by 2020.

The market growth predicted in the government-industry coalition’s roadmap implies a U.K. share of 10% to 15% of expected global FCEV sales.

The report says being at the forefront of the commercialization of FCEVs and hydrogen could benefit the U.K.’s successful automotive sector substantially.

“Vehicle assembly plants, supported by an innovative supplier base ranging from design and development to component manufacture, could provide jobs, exports and wealth creation for the U.K. economy,” it says.

“In addition there will be significant opportunities for the fuel suppliers and retailers, energy utilities, hydrogen-network providers and others, leading to further potential for wealth and job creation.”

The second phase of the UK H2 Mobility project, to be completed this year, aims to develop the integrated business case for realizing all parts of the roadmap and address barriers to the introduction of FCEVs to the U.K.

Key objectives include the development of a commercial model for building the early refueling infrastructure.