WardsAuto Flashback – October 2013

75 Years Ago (October 1938): Q4 Outlook Bright; New Models Bow; WAR Sees 4.0 Million in 1939

 With dealer orders for new cars on the rise, Ward’s Automotive Reports, in its Oct. 1, 1938, issue, outlines the reasons for its positive fourth-quarter outlook. Chief among them, dealer new-car inventory is “extremely low” compared with an overabundance of vehicles a year earlier. Second, consumer interest in new cars is high, whereas it was “apathetic” at this time last year. Consumer “buying power” is “ascending” this year instead of “declining” as it was a year ago. Other contributing factors to this year’s brighter picture: Major changes in ’39 models vs. mostly minor updates for ’38; improving public confidence; dealers are in a stronger financial situation; general business activity is on the upswing and the stock market is deemed “firm” compared with a year ago, when it was declining.     

Auto makers begin taking the wraps off ’39 models this month as seen by the number of paid new-model inserts, many of them in color, in WAR throughout October. Looking much like a dealer brochure, Hudson Motor’s oversized 4-page color spread details its One-Twelve, Hudson Six and Country Club 6- and 8-cyl. models. The Hudson layout touts new Airfoam foam-rubber seats, standard on Country Club variants and optional on other models. New on all variants is Auto-Poise (a type of front stabilizer bar), providing, according to Hudson “The most amazing riding comfort you ever enjoyed.” Other makes appearing as inserts include single-page color shots for Desoto (3) and Studebaker (1). Overland runs a black-and-white glamour shot of its latest offering. Financially ailing Graham utilizes three pages of black-and-white artist’s renderings of its “Spirit of Motion” ’39 models.  

A WAR forecast of “close to 4.0 million” in car production in calendar 1939 “appears to have touched off a wave of optimistic forecasts,” the newsletter reports in its Oct. 29, 1938, issue. “Mr. Edsel Ford this week anticipated a 50% gain for his company in 1939 over 1938,” while “Mr. William Knudsen of General Motors predicted a 3,400,000 (industry) total.” Other estimates have been “consistently stronger in the last few days” compared with expectations averaging 3.2 million units a month earlier.

70 Years Ago (October 1943): Willow Run Reconfigured; GMC Heading for 24/7; Michigan Law Crimps Output

Ford’s Willow Run, MI, plant is being reconfigured to increase assembly of bomber aircraft, with the likelihood “Jeep, truck, battle wagon and other vehicle production will be subordinated, if not altogether eliminated. The year end may see most, if not all, of these manufacturing schedules cut back to the point where all of the far-flung Ford manufacturing establishments will be entirely devoted to the accomplishment of the nation’s projected aircraft production goals.”

At General Motors Truck plants, “the long working week now in effect, plus an abundance of overtime in many phases of this vehicle producer’s operations, has moved its manufacturing level to an estimated 125% of its busiest months of 1941.” Some departments are “driving ahead for a full 24-hour 7-day workweek with “quite a number” of employees putting in more than 60 hours weekly. Duck (amphibious landing craft) production is being “rushed to the limit of worker endurance,” as is the case with hull building for a new, as yet undisclosed, combat vehicle.

As women are increasingly employed to meet defense-work schedules, state restrictions on the number hours they may work is limiting their effectiveness, say some contractors. In Michigan, manufacturers have asked state officials to increase the number of hours women are allowed to work from 54 to 56 weekly in order to keep plants running on a 7-day schedule. The problem is particularly acute in plants “where females are mixed with males. The latter are often willing to stay on the job for 60 hours or more. However, when the feminine operatives are obliged to knock off because of restrictive regulations, the assembly lines must go down.”

60 Years Ago (October 1953): Merger Talks Blossom; 1.0 Millionth Wagon; Dodge, Plymouth Jazz Up ’54s

The end of the postwar sellers’ market and competitive pressure from the Big 3 have prompted more indications of mergers among independent auto makers and suppliers. Touched off by Kaiser’s acquisition of Willys Motors, the movement includes the combination of Timken Axle and Standard Steel Spring under the name Rockwell Spring and Axle. Preliminary talks between Hudson and Nash appear to be the “most advanced at the present time,” although “widespread” speculation linking Packard and Studebaker is circulating “in and out of the industry.” WAR’s contention, “Any unification of Nash-Hudson sales, production and purchasing facilities would preclude any loss of product identity” to the contrary, the early 1954 formation of American Motors results in the elimination of the existing Hudson line after the ’54 model run. From ’55 through ’57, Hudson becomes a badged-engineered Nash, sometimes derisively referred to as a “Hash.” Both nameplates disappear in ’58. (Packard joins Studebaker also in 1954 as Studebaker-Packard, but continued financial difficulties bring an end to Packard output after model year ’56. However, the prestigious Packard name lingers as a badge-engineered Studebaker through ’58.)

According to Ward’s data, January-September 1953 production of station wagons totaled 235,000 units, an all-time record that surpassed output of every calendar year in history. It bested by 21.5% the prior record of 193,415 set in January-December 1951, bringing postwar wagon output to 1,104,331 units. Ford, the only auto maker offering both 2- and 4-door wagons, is the market leader for the second consecutive year with a 38% output share compared with 32.4% in 1952 and just 15.5% in 1951. Ford Div.’s Ranch Wagon, the least-costly model, is its best seller, surpassing both the Country Sedan and top-line Country Squire. Mercury wagon output also surpasses any prior calendar-year total.

Chrysler, having “never before offered anything in the way of modish designs and attractive color treatments,” earns Ward’s kudos for its restyled ’54 Chrysler, Dodge and Plymouth models. “It would seem as though the entire corporation has undergone a rebirth in style consciousness.” Dodge expands its lineup with a new top-line V-8-powered Royal series featuring “11 brilliant body colors and 14 2-tone combinations.” Royals also are available with optional PowerFlite, the brand’s first fully automatic transmission. Plymouth has reconfigured its’54 lineup with Plaza replacing Cambridge as the intro model. Savoy takes over for the midline Cranbrook, while Belvedere remains at the top. “Emphasis to the Nth degree has been placed on color harmony and modern décor.” Although Plymouth retains its optional Hy-Drive semi-automatic transmission, power steering is a new $130 option.

50 Years Ago (October 1963): Record Q4 Output; Renault Powers Up; Plymouth Earns Trophy; 1964 a Good Year?

Increases at Chrysler and General Motors push scheduled fourth-quarter car production to a record 2,182,400 units, up 6% from the prior peak of 2,059,304 posted in 1962. Output for the year is pegged by WAR at 7,529,500 units, 8.6% higher than the prior year’s 6,935,182 completions, but no threat to the record 7,942,132 cars built in 1955.

All signs point to 1964 being a good year for the auto industry, WAR economic research indicates. “Auto purchases in 1964 will not be hindered by ‘tight’ money. And the lag between repayment and auto credit extensions will remain about normal and nominal.” However, disposable personal income may not be as readily appropriated for a new car, the publication says. The “lone economic reservation to a certain rather than a ‘potentially’ good year is that repayments of non-automotive credit extensions are showing somewhat more of a lag. This has some economists thinking borrowers may take up the slack in other indebtedness before kicking any more tires in dealer showrooms.”

Renault’s ’64 models will have more powerful engines and lower prices to better compete in the U.S. market. Price cuts, averaging 5%, range from $40 on the standard Dauphine to $100 on the R-8 and $266 on sports models. At the same time, Dauphine gets a power boost to 40 hp from 32, while the top-line convertible increases to 55 hp from 51.

The United States Auto Club awards this year’s Manufacturer’s Trophy to Plymouth for winning the most USAC-sponsors races in the past 12 months.  It won 16 contests, placed second seven times and had the fastest qualifying time in six outings. It also finished among the top five positions 26 times.

25 Years Ago (October 1988): Turbo Output Lags; Toyota Dedicates Georgetown; Taurus SHO Bows; Standard ABS by 1995?

Based on data from a Ward’s survey of ’88 model year domestic-make car production, the use of turbocharged engines fell 32% compared with ’87, to 174,900 units from a record 258,600. The outlook is for another decline to 150,000 units in ’89. Chrysler again led the industry in ’88 turbo-car output despite a decline to 100,500 from a record 203,700 in ’87 as it brought new V-6 engines on line and phased out some high-turbo-use models such as the Dodge Daytona. Ford turned out 42,900 turbo cars in ’88, mostly Thunderbird Turbo Coupes, but also including 7,600 Mazda-built Probe GTs. While that was up from just 22,700 in ’87, Ford’s usage will drop again in ’89 as the Turbo Coupe gives way to the Super Coupe sporting a supercharged V-6. Domestic turbo car production, since Buick reintroduced the power booster in ’78, stands at 1,254,100 units, Chrysler accounting for 62.8% of the total.

Meanwhile, sales of import cars with turbo engines fell 29% to 123,500 units in ’88 from 174,400 in ’87. Volvo was No.1 with 21,800 units in ’88, but that was down 5.6% compared with 23,100 the prior year. Second was Saab, at 17,300, a gain of 23.6% from 14,000 cars in ’87.

Oct. 6 marks the formal dedication of Toyota’s new $1.1 billion Georgetown, KY, assembly complex. Employing 1,663 workers, the plant builds 170 4-door Camrys daily on a single shift, accelerating to 400 daily by 1991, when employment is set to reach 3,500. The adjoining powertrain facility will supply axles and, beginning in 1991, engines. During the startup month of September, Georgetown built 2,954 cars, 2,100 of which have been shipped to dealers. According to Toyota, the quality of Tennessee-built cars is indistinguishable from those built in Japan.

Ford’s high-performance Taurus SHO (super high output) goes on sale this month. It is powered by a 24-valve 3.0L V-6, built in Japan by Yamaha, mated to a 5-speed manual gearbox. An automatic transmission is expected to be available within two years. According to Ford, the engine’s 220 hp is well above the 190 hp “normally thought to be the highest output a front-wheel-drive car can handle.” With 6,000 orders currently in hand, first-year sales are forecast by Ford at 20,000 units.

In the opinion of some Chrysler engineers, antilock brakes will be standard across the board by about 1995, as forthcoming innovations reduce complexity and cost. The compact Jeep Cherokee and Wagoneer are the only ’89-model light trucks featuring 4-wheel ABS, although most of them come with rear-wheel-only systems. Chrysler says the next move is to tailor the “feel” to individual auto maker demands with the goal of eliminating the pulsating felt in the brake pedal. Research has shown drivers may become alarmed by the vibration and back off the brakes, negating the system’s effectiveness, the company says.