Experts: Electricity, Smaller ICEs to Cut Emissions

Three senior research scientists predict that by 2050, most vehicles will need to be electrically propelled, with a battery to store energy or an on-board hydrogen fuel cell to generate electricity, if emissions targets set by the U.K. government are to be met.

In a 300-page book, Towards Sustainable Road Transport, published by Elsevier, they describe both today’s state-of-the-art power sources and advanced vehicle designs needed to meet the 80% reduction in global emissions required over the next 35 years.

Patrick Moseley, president emeritus of the Advanced Lead-Acid Battery Consortium, says over the past 25 years, the auto industry has reduced its greenhouse-gas emissions 20% from a 1990 baseline, less than 1% a year.

“Over the next 35 years, the industry will have to sustain the 2% to 3% annual reduction that it is now achieving,” he says in a statement. “That’s a tall order.”

Moseley’s co-authors are Ronald Dell, former head of applied electrochemistry at the U.K. Atomic Energy Authority, and David Rand, former chief research scientist of the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization of Australia.

“Our work examines the prospects for an evolution of the global transport system, which currently consumes irreplaceable resources and degrades the environment, towards one with a modus operandi that will be both supportable and benign,” says Dell. The authors say the global fleet of motor vehicles of all types, including 2-wheelers, now is about 1.5 billion, of which 1 billion are cars. This is expected to reach 2 billion soon after 2020, with a rapid increase in the number of internal-combustion-engine vehicles anticipated in China and India.

“Automotive manufacturers face the conflicting demands of customers for vehicles with ever-improved performance, safety and comfort, but without any appreciable increase in cost,” Rand says.

“This is being resolved through advances in vehicle design and in particular through refinement in propulsion technology. The trend is towards smaller internal-combustion engines augmented by intelligent electrification with no decrease in power; this combination being especially effective in reducing both emissions and fuel consumption.”

All three authors were heavily involved throughout their careers in electrochemistry and the development of advanced battery designs and power sources.

They say even though the search for more advanced battery chemistries continues, there appears to be little prospect in the short term of finding a battery system that can provide an EV driving range between charges of much more than 150 miles (240 km), while withstanding rapid recharging for a satisfactory life and being manufactured at a competitive cost.

“It could be 20 years before possible next-generation lithium-air batteries make it out of the laboratory and into the car,” Rand says.