Powertrain Outlook

More than 100 North America-based automotive powertrain experts foresee mostly gradual evolution of engine technology between now and 2020, according to a new study by the University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute.

The Powertrain Strategies for the 21st Century survey is part of the institute's long-term Future Powertrain Program focusing on the potential development directions for automotive propulsion. Respondents include engineers, executives and managers from auto makers, suppliers and other non-industry sectors.

Ward's assisted in the survey's development and encouraged readers in the powertrain sector to participate.

Survey results suggest while almost all respondents are convinced fuel prices will be significantly higher in 2015 and 2020, the majority of automotive engines and transmissions used in North America will look much like they do today.

Hybrid-electric powertrains and new-generation diesels appear to be the future's big winners, the survey finds.

Respondents predict in 2015, 58% of passenger cars will be powered by spark-ignited gasoline engines (the current U.S. percentage is about 97%), with compression-ignition diesels accounting for 15%. By 2020, however, the survey predicts gasoline-engine share will drop to 45%, with diesels growing to 18% of the passenger-car market.

Hybrids — “mild” hybrids and even plug-in hybrids using both gasoline and diesel combustion engines — are predicted to account for a combined passenger-car share of 21% in 2015 and 27% in 2020.