Automakers Keeping Pace as EU Raises Emissions Bar

BRIGHTON, U.K. – Significant increases in alternative-fuel vehicle registrations across the European Union may signal understanding by automakers that these sales are needed to help hit ever-tougher emission targets.

From Sept. 1, all new cars sold in the EU will have to comply with EU Euro 6 emissions standards placing tough controls on emissions of nitrogen oxide, carbon monoxide, particulate matter and hydrocarbons. With even more-stringent Euro 7 standards now under consideration, the case for focusing more sales on AFVs only will become clearer.

Statistics released July 31 by ACEA, the European automakers group, showed a 24.6% increase in registrations to 143,595 AFVs in the EU, including electric cars, hybrids and liquid-propane- and natural gas-fueled vehicles since the start of 2015.

Registrations of electric vehicles grew 53%, rising from 18,024 units in second-quarter 2014 to 27,575 in Q2 2015. Hybrid-electric vehicles increased 22.6% to 53,443 units. And 62,577 new cars in the second quarter were powered by propane and natural gas, an increase of 3%.

Nils-Olof Nylund, chair of the European Biofuels Technology Platform’s working group on end use of fuels, says this progress will help EU automakers achieve the 2020 target of 95 g/km of carbon dioxide finalized by the EU in 2013, following an earlier 2015 target of 130 g/km, which largely has been achieved.

“The strong growth is in EVs and plug-in hybrids,” Nylund tells WardsAuto. “One reason is there are binding CO2 limits for the auto manufacturers. As battery-electric vehicles are considered zero-emission vehicles, they are good for lowering the average CO2 emissions of the auto manufacturer.

“Also vehicle taxation is often linked to CO2 emissions,” he says. “A battery-electric vehicle running on coal-based electricity is considered zero emission, whereas an internal-combustion engine vehicle running on 100% biofuels is considered a high emitter.”

Kristine Bitnere, a research manager for global energy consultancy Stratas Advisors, agrees AFVs are helping automakers hit EU CO2 emissions targets.

“Manufacturers have been able to achieve the first target thanks to technological improvements and partially (through) sales of hybrid vehicles, electric vehicles and other alternative vehicles which are efficient in CO2,” she says.

“To achieve the (2020) goal, manufacturers will have to sell more hybrid cars and battery-electric vehicles. In the EU, policy and binding targets play an important role in shaping markets and thus the industry’s product. There are legislative and policy explanations behind the surge in AFVs in the past few years.”

AFV Recharging, Refueling Infrastructure Growth Lags

Notably, in 2014, the EU approved another directive requiring member states to develop plans for refueling and recharging infrastructure, which should promote sales.

But according to Bitnere, there will be a bigger increase in hybrid cars because despite this legislative encouragement, recharging/fueling infrastructure for battery-electric and compressed-natural-gas vehicles is taking time to be developed: “For longer distances, diesel and gasoline will remain the main options.”

Automakers have made huge technological strides in upgrading hybrids and EVs, she notes, predicting more progress going forward, notably by:

While these improvements may increase the sales of AFVs, whether this trend could grow overall sales of vehicles in Europe is debatable, Bitnere says.

“AFVs are not the main reason for an increase in the number of cars in stock in Europe. The age of cars in stock is increasing as well – 9.5 years in 2014 on average. This means there are fewer people getting rid of their old cars or more people are buying used cars, especially in Eastern Europe.”

Accounting for Market Forces

Such trends are not restricted to Europe. Wade Newton, a spokesman for the U.S.-based Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers, warns that even if AFV technologies improve, the price still has to be right: “Automakers are providing consumers with greater fuel economy, offering almost 500 models achieving 30 mpg (7.8 L/100 km) or higher on the highway.

“Although we can produce these vehicles, consumers must be able to afford them and want to purchase them to raise fuel economy overall.”

Consumer choice is complex “with many different needs and desires at play,” Newton says, “and low fuel prices are causing sales of the most fuel-efficient models to fall well below expectations.”

Automakers are using every technology available to improve mileage and still keep vehicles affordable, he says. “Looking ahead, though, we will need to see much greater sales of the most energy-efficient vehicles to meet the steep fuel-economy standards.”

Meanwhile, ACEA Secretary General Erik Jonnaert notes standard-transmission autos still can play a part in meeting tougher emissions targets, and highlights progress in using biodiesel fuel. “Since 2000, nitrogen oxides (NOx) limits for diesel cars have been reduced by 84% and particulates by 90%,” he says. “Moreover, cars powered by a diesel engine produce 15% less CO2 per kilometer than similar vehicles running on (gasoline). Diesel helps us to further reduce CO2 emissions from road transport and mitigate climate change, a priority for all policy makers in Europe.”

ACEA is keen to promote the benefits of biodiesel. To mark the launch of Euro 6, it and the Association for Emissions Control by Catalyst, European Council for Motor Trades and Repairs and European Association of Automotive Suppliers have jointly launched a website, www.cleandieseltech.eu, accompanied by a #CleanDieselTech Twitter social-media campaign.

“With this initiative we want to inform the general public, as well as policy makers, about the latest generation of diesel technology with simple and accessible facts, figures and infographics,” Jonnaert says.