Trucks See Winds of Change; Compact Cars Steady

A relative newcomer to the light-truck segment is cutting into the long-time top sellers’ leads, while in the car segment compacts are showing some strength. But recent talk of a compact-car revival seems unfounded.

In the fullsize half-ton pickup segment, the usual suspects – Chevrolet Silverado, Ford F-Series and GMC Sierra – grabbed the first three spots in terms of market share, according to recent S&P Global Mobility data.

But the Toyota Tundra, in fourth place, is encroaching on their leadership by designing trucks that pass the “real” truck test.

That started with the model-year 2022 Tundra, designed and engineered at Toyota studios in the U.S.

“The 2022 Tundra (was) a real truck. The model before was almost a truck. The Tundra that is out now is a ‘truck’ truck,” Ryan Rohrman, CEO of Rohrman Automotive Group, tells WardsAuto. The Rohrman Group has two Toyota dealerships, both in Indiana.

Toyota has slowly made its way into truck buyers’ consideration not only by improving its truck but also by offering low maintenance costs and a history of few recalls, Rohrman says.

“The new Tundra can do everything the F-150 can do,” says Rohrman, whose company also owns a Ford franchise in Illinois.  “It is the first import truck that you can look at side by side with a domestic truck and there is not a glaring miss.”

Brand Loyalty to the Rescue

“If there is one brand Chevy and Ford need to take seriously, it is Toyota,” Tom Libby, loyalty principal and associate director of industry analysis at S&P Global Mobility, tells WardsAuto. “One of the advantages of the Tundra, anecdotally, is (that) the 2022 model is a huge step forward. It can’t necessarily do everything the domestics can do, but it is a huge step forward,”

The Tundra had 15.2% of the fullsize, half-ton U.S. pickup market in the second quarter of 2024, up from 13.7% in the first quarter and 11.6% in the fourth quarter of 2023, according to S&P data.

But the Tundra isn’t taking market share from the Silverado and F-Series, the top two brands. They held 28.9% and 26.9%, respectively, of the market in the second quarter, up slightly for Silverado and down slightly for F-Series. Both have hovered around those levels for the past few years.

Another brand has suffered: “The Tundra has reached a record share almost completely at expense of Ram,” Libby says.

The Ram fullsize half-ton pickup’s market share in the second quarter was 10.1%, down from 14.2% in the first quarter of 2024 and 17.4% in the fourth quarter of 2023.

The Silverado and F-Series have very strong brand loyalty, Libby says: “They will do everything possible to keep their loyal customers (and) they have all kinds of levers they can pull to keep them in the fold.”

For Ram, the fall-off has been so steep, it is a “different situation,” Libby says. “Ram has to claw its way back.”

Compact Car Comeback Unlikely

Pickups in general have a loyal fan base. Their market share “has been relatively steady since 2021,” Libby says. In the second quarter of this year fullsize half-ton trucks’ market share was 8.0%, according to S&P.

The car market, on the other hand, is seeing some subtle shifts, perhaps due to rising transaction prices. Since 2022, compact cars have held steady while midsize and subcompact cars’ market share is slowly trending down, Libby says.

And this year, compact cars have even seen a slight rise, taking 7.39% of the market in the second quarter of 2024, up from 6.61% in the fourth quarter of 2023.

But it’s too soon to declare a compact comeback, Libby cautions. “There are some signs of life (but) it is not earthshaking,” he says. “You have to look long term. My opinion is, you have to wait for more time to go by” before declaring a comeback.

Some models, such as the Toyota Camry and Corolla and the Honda Civic, are selling a “decent volume,” Libby says. But a “huge number” of brands have exited the compact segment, he says. So, any demand is bound to cluster around the remaining models.

‘Likable’ Honda Civic performing well in compact segment.

“It’s very unlikely we will see a long-term rise” in the compact segment’s market share, Libby says.

Consideration data from Edmunds suggests Libby is right. It measures the percentage of visitors to the automotive marketplace site engaging in research activities.

For the compact segment, consideration has held steady around 5% for the past seven months, says Jessica Caldwell, head of insights at Edmunds. In February it was 5.1%.“I think there are products that are likable in the segment and that are doing well, such as the Honda Civic, but there seems to be less vehicles available here in order to see a significant market share swing from a historical perspective,” Caldwell tells WardsAuto.