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Increased competition has stalled EV sales.Getty Images
J.D. Power lowered its EV market share forecast for 2024 and 2025, now projecting a 9% share in 2024, which equates to around 1.2 million battery-electric-vehicle sales, excluding plug-in hybrids and hybrid-electrics. This is down from the previous forecast of 12%.
The growth in overall EV sales isn’t enough to offset slower adoption and consumer interest in early 2024, according to J.D. Power.
“Welcome to the messy middle of the EV evolution,” Elizabeth Krear, vice president of the electric-vehicle practice at J.D. Power and lead author of the just-released August 2024 E-Intelligence Report. “As manufacturers continue to refine their go-to-market EV strategies, offering an increasingly varied mix of powertrains ranging from HEVs to PHEVs to BEVs, the adoption curve continues to grow but in a less predictable, more volatile fashion.
"Overall, BEV sales are up 35,000 units through July 2024, and while that is a clear sign of continued momentum, it is a slower growth rate than previously expected.”
As manufacturers refine their EV strategies and expand their range of powertrains, adoption continues to grow, but in a more unpredictable manner, report the study authors.
Despite the slower growth rate, J.D. Power expects annual EV sales to claim a 36% market share by 2030 and 58% by 2035.
Key points from the report include:
There are now 60 BEV models and 45 PHEVs. Currently, (Month of July) BEV models make up 9.2% of retail share, while PHEVs make up 2% or retail share. This growth in PHEVs adds competition and complicates adoption. With more PHEVs and commitment from OEMs to grow PHEV models, more ICE consumers could opt for PHEVs over BEVs, alongside ongoing concerns about public charging infrastructure.
Potential for Growth: Improvements in EV affordability and availability, coupled with tax incentives and attractive lease deals, are making EVs more competitive with gas-powered cars. Additionally, the high likelihood of returning EV lessees considering another BEV could boost sales over the next two years.
Increased Competition and Market Trends: The slower-than-expected EV growth in early 2024 is partly due to increased competition from gasoline vehicles. While HEVs and BEVs dominate with 8.6% and 8.4% of sales, respectively, PHEVs now account for 1.8% of retail sales, up from 0.6% in 2020. However, PHEVs score lower than BEVs in satisfaction surveys, particularly regarding battery range and total ownership cost.
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