SUV Popularity Goes Global

TRAVERSE CITY, MI – SUV fever hit the U.S. long ago and is spreading around the world, says an auto analyst.

“SUVs are gaining ground in all markets,” Jeff Schuster, LMC Automotive’s senior vice president-global forecasting, says at the 2017 Center for Automotive Research’s Management Briefing Seminars here.

“The SUV story continues,” he says. “It’s not running out of steam. We’re seeing it globally.”

SUV market share will hit 35% worldwide and 45% in the U.S. in four years, Schuster predicts. “It’s really an SUV story going forward.”

He anticipates there will be 500 different SUV model offerings by 2021. That contrasts to “the low 100s in 2001.”

SUVs gained popularity in the late 1990s, thanks largely to the Ford Explorer, one of the first out of the gate.

They were truck-based back then, and sales declined temporarily in the mid-2000s as fuel prices spiked and the economy declined.

But a market resurgence occurred when manufacturers began offering utilities on car-based, unibody platforms. Consequently, fuel economy, ride and handling improved. So did sales.

In the U.S., light-truck demand (including SUVs, CUVs and pickup trucks) reached 10.6 million units last year, a 7.2% increase, according to WardsAuto data. Total U.S. light-vehicle sales reached 17.5 million in 2016.

Global vehicle production is pivoting rapidly to increase SUV output, Schuster says.

Of the production shift, Michael Robinet, IHS Automotive’s managing director-automotive advisory services, says, “How quickly OEMs pull back on sedans will be interesting to watch.”

The Chinese SUV market is expected to exceed 40% by 2021, Schuster says, adding the Chinese market is the one to keep an eye on, and not just because of surging SUV sales.

Global vehicle sales are expected to pass the 100 million mark, reaching 101.6 million in three years. That anticipated increase largely depends on China, the world’s largest market.

“Everything is riding on China,” Schuster says.

Global auto sales totaled 95 million units last year, a 2% increase. Growth is expected to slow slightly in 2018 (1.7%) before reaching 3% in 2019, he says.

Schuster expects 1.5 billion vehicles to be on the road worldwide in 2022. That compares with 1.2 billion last year.

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