Report: Industry Should Still Reach 50% BEV Target By 2030

The U.S. auto industry should meet the goal of battery-electric vehicles accounting for 50% of new-vehicle sales by 2030 despite the current slowdown in demand.

The forecast accounts for factors including battery costs, new products and government support. The revelation comes from Recurrentauto.com, an electric mobility research firm.

The International Energy Agency also forecasts 50% BEV adoption. It revised its 2024 projections upwards from the previous year based on the strength of 2023 sales. The IEA projections for 2030 increased by 13%-14% based on EV sales in 2023. This forecast would put BEVs at 50% of total car sales in 2030 before accounting for plug-in hybrid sales.

” Despite sensationalist headlines about the decline of electric vehicles, most (B)EV drivers are not clamoring to return to a life of gas pumps and analog transmissions. Battery-electric vehicles remain the clear path forward,” says Scott Case, CEO of Recurrentauto.com

There is considerable noise in the forecast right now, including political considerations if Republicans take the White House and Congress this November, and the likely cancellation of government mandates; the possible influx of Chinese BEVs to the U.S. by way of Mexican plants – vehicles which could potentially avoid tariffs unless the U.S. amends the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement negotiated by the Trump Admin. and enacted in 2020. Its rules could let Chinese autos assembled in Mexico enter the U.S. either duty-free or at a nominal 2.5% tariff rate.

Surveys of consumers by multiple sources indicate a slowdown in consumer demand and interest in BEVs, as well as some survey results showing some BEV owners wanting to return to internal-combustion-engine vehicles. Such consumer sentiment, though, can be chalked up to growing pains of the transition to BEVs, especially since the public charging infrastructure has proved to be immature and unreliable since BEVs started to take off.

A key factor driving the forecast is that battery costs have hit a new low and are widely projected to drop 40% from 2022 to 2025, allowing for more models to come online with longer ranges and helping automakers sell BEVs profitably.

Recurrentauto.com projects that PHEVs will account for 8% of total sales by 2030.

Another factor is that even if a theoretical Republican administration in 2025 rolled back the current EPA mandate, state mandates are not going anywhere, especially California. There are 17 other states with tougher zero-emission timelines that surpass federal rules, and automakers must be able to sell in those mostly populous states.