Will the BEV Signal the End of the Classic Car?

For anyone even lightly enamored with automobiles, it’s enormously satisfying to see a well-kept vintage car chugging down the road.

Some of the most beautiful cars built in the decades before most of us were born are still motoring along thanks to the efforts of dedicated owners and restorers. This, of course, only applies to models with serviceable internal-combustion engines, steam engines or electric vehicles with replaceable lead-acid batteries, such as Germany's Flocken Elektrowagen of 1888 still in working order today.

Modern battery-electric vehicles on our roads today are still too young to get the classic car treatment. Yet, there’s another major factor that’ll keep collectors away from them: Most have a very limited lifespan.

At the heart of this problem is the component that makes a BEV a BEV. “The primary factor limiting EV longevity is battery degradation. Lithium-ion batteries, used in most EVs, lose capacity over time,” says Rob Dillan of next-generation auto industry news and analysis site EVHype. According to Dillan, that capacity loss amounts to roughly 2.3% per year. That figure can be higher if factors such as extreme weather and heavy use of rapid charging solutions are accounted for.

While there is more research to be done on battery longevity (and durability), a commonly accepted lifespan for the average EV battery is eight years. Also, the battery in an EV is a much different beast than the one powering the electrical system in your classic ICE. “Swapping out a battery is possible, but it’s complicated and expensive,” says John Ellmore, editor of British specialty site ElectricCarGuide.co.uk. Additionally, he points out that this can be ruinously expensive if not covered by warranty. He estimates that off-warranty battery replacement can cost the equivalent of at least $10,000.

One obvious, albeit somehow late-arriving, solution to this is to engineer a swappable battery system. As the 2020s began, Chinese automaker Nio launched a battery-as-a-service (BaaS) subscription, enabling Nio owners to replace their power packs at dedicated Power Swap Stations around that vast country.

This has since spread outside of China's borders and the move into other markets will continue. Last November Nio signed a deal on developing and implementing such technology with its compatriot Geely Holding (the corporate parent of Volvo, Lotus and Polestar).

Of course, the key aim of Nio’s system is to have a fresh battery at one’s disposal during a journey. However, such a regime promises to extend longevity simply because of its design. Dying batteries can be discarded permanently in favor of new ones; although not overly practical, such a cycle is a potential longevity workaround.

Just now, though, there’s no easy solution to the battery problem. Some might blame automakers and battery makers for this situation. After all, shouldn’t they have been considering longevity from the very start? Perhaps, but BEVs grew sharply in popularity and uptake and the industry’s emphasis was on developing workable and salable models. Now that the BEV space is maturing and sales growth isn’t as hot as it was previously, there’s more scope to concoct longer-lasting battery solutions.

Yet there’s a catch: Designing a battery robust and resilient enough to last decades isn’t an easy task. According to Richard Ahlfeld, founder and CEO of battery performance specialist Monolith, much of this has to do not with the design or manufacture but with another crucial element of bringing such products to market: the testing process. According to him, this is “extremely complex, involving thousands of design scenarios that all require a very long time to test.”

This leads to a difficult choice that has bothered vehicle manufacturers and component makers alike ever since the dawn of the auto industry. “As the physics of complex products like batteries become more and more intricate and time-consuming to understand, engineers find themselves in a dilemma; they either conduct excessive tests to cover all possible operating conditions or run insufficient tests that risk the omission of critical performance parameters,” Ahlfeld says. “One is time-intensive and risks staying competitive while the other risks brand reputation and customer safety.”

Perhaps a more elegant solution doesn’t rest with batteries at all. A clutch of green-energy advocates is pushing for the adoption of carbon-neutral fuels, which produce carbon dioxide when burned to power a vehicle (and thus do not harm the environment). Among established automakers, Toyota is arguably leading the charge here, with the hydrogen-powered Mirai now approaching its 10-year anniversary. The bad news is that uptake has been weak, with the company selling barely over 2,600 Mirais in the first nine months of 2023. That’s hardly a ripple in the nearly 8.3 million total Toyota unit sales in that same stretch of time.

So, it’s clear that consumers have chosen BEVs to be the future of sustainable transport, at least for now. Automakers and battery makers will have to solve the longevity issue because after all, it’s hardly beneficial to own an expensive machine guaranteed to be obsolete in less than 10 years.

If this situation doesn’t improve sufficiently, says ElectricCarGuide.co.uk’s Ellmore, it “could indeed lead to a backlash, potentially slowing down the adoption of EVs. Customers might lean towards ICE vehicles or hybrids, perceiving them as more reliable long-term investments.”