17 Million SAAR Streak Should Continue in July

A new WardsAuto forecast calls for continued strong U.S. light-vehicle sales in July, with competition in the light truck segments and end-of-month competition in some car segments spurring deliveries.

The report calls for 1.49 million LV deliveries this month, or a daily sales rate of 57,160 units (over 26 days), a 4% improvement over same-month year-ago (also 26 days).

If the projected 17.3 million-unit seasonally adjusted annual rate is reached, it will mark the first time since 2000 that the monthly LV SAAR has exceeded 17 million units in three consecutive months, and would represent the highest July SAAR since 2005.

The forecasted 2.8% drop from June’s DSR (over 25 days) is in line with June-July comparisons over the past several years.

The industry exited June with 3.54 million units of inventory, for a 61 days’ supply, distributed fairly evenly across segments. CUVs (47 days) were the only segment to enter July with less than 50 days’ supply. Strong sales, paired with lighter than expected production in July should result in a 59 days’ supply by the end of the month, with 3.36 million units of stock – a 1% increase over year-ago, but also the first time inventory has fallen below 3.5 million since September.

The WardsAuto forecast calls for General Motors daily sales to increase 3.1% over year-ago, with pickups and CUVs providing much of the momentum. The projected 264,000 deliveries would give GM a 17.8% market share, nearly even with year-ago. July’s forecast also brings GM’s year-to-date deliveries to 1.77 million, up 3.4% over same-period year-ago.

Ford’s DSR, is forecast to rise 2.6%, with increased availability and incentives on the company’s all-new F-Series pickups fueling improvement. WardsAuto looks for the automaker to deliver nearly 213,000 light vehicles, for a 14.3% share. The company’s 7-month total of 1.48 million would represent a 2.1% improvement over year-ago YTD.

FCA US is expected to deliver roughly 179,000 light vehicles, up 7.4% on a daily basis, for a 12% share. Year-to-date sales of 1.25 million would put the automaker 6.2% ahead of year-ago.

WardsAuto’s forecast calls for Toyota to potentially push ahead of Ford to claim the No.2 sales spot in July, with 217,000 deliveries equating to a 14.6% market share. The called-for 0.6% year-over-year DSR uptick is well below the company’s projected 5% YTD improvement.

Honda’s DSR is expected to rise 5.2% on just under 143,000 deliveries, giving the company a 9.6% share, in line with year-ago. As forecast, Honda will finish July with 2.4% YTD sales gain.

The WardsAuto forecast also calls for Nissan to outpace rival Hyundai Group for the third consecutive month, with 132,000 deliveries versus 125,000 sales of Hyundai and Kia-brand vehicles.

At forecast levels, year-to-date sales through July would rise to 9.97 million units, up 4.4% over the first seven months of 2014.

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