European Auto Sales Running Well Ahead of Forecasts

PARIS – Europe continues to surprise forecasters, with a 10.6% increase in automobile registrations in March, bringing the year’s advance to 8.4% through the first quarter.

While total March registrations of 1,449,148 units in the European Union is the second-lowest result since 2003, according to the ACEA automakers’ association, the improvement in the market so far this year is well above the 2%-3% level forecast by many analysts at the end of 2013.

Still, last year’s first-half sales were especially low, so deliveries later this year will be compared to a market that had begun growing. March was the seventh straight month of sales improvement in the EU.

Sales rose in 23 countries and fell only in Belgium, the Netherlands, Luxembourg and Austria. Those are relatively affluent countries in which cars were being acquired at a more or less normal pace last year, considering the overall economy.

Deliveries rose in the five largest markets of the U.K. (+17.7%), Spain (+10.0%), France (+8.5%), Germany (+5.4%) and Italy (+5.0%).

The two brands with the biggest sales improvement in March are at opposite ends of the market, continuing a trend seen for several years. Entry-level brand Dacia sales rose 53.5%, and Lexus found 37.9% more buyers. Jeep was third on the list, at 31.9%.

Dacia pulled the Renault Group ahead 30.4%, leading the way for automakers. A year ago, Renault was in the doldrums, but thanks to new products like the Dacia Sandero and Renault Clio IV and Captur, the automaker is rebuilding its base rapidly.

Only Jaguar Land Rover and Honda had fewer registrations in March than a year earlier. A year ago Land Rover was booming.

Ford continued its 2014 revival with sales up 14.6% in March and 12.8% for the first quarter, and General Motors was up 7.2% in the month and 4.7% for the quarter. Fiat improved 4.6% in March, with only the Alfa Romeo brand slipping behind last year’s pace, and the Fiat group is 2.8% ahead on the year.

Audi continues to lead the premium brands in Europe, climbing 9.7% in the first quarter. Lexus deliveries are growing rapidly, albeit from a very low base.