Forecast: June Sales to Reach 11-Year High

A WardsAuto forecast calls for U.S. automakers to deliver 1.57 million light vehicles this month.

The expected daily sales rate of 60,314 over 26 selling days represents a 2.5% improvement from like-2015 (25 days), with total volume for the month rising 6.6%.

The forecast 5.3% DSR decline from May (26 days) is slightly less than the 7-year average change for May-June.

The report puts the seasonally adjusted annual rate of sales for the month at 17.3 million units, shy of last month’s 17.37 million SAAR, but ahead of the current 3-month SAAR (17.0 million) and the year-to-date SAAR through May (17.2 million).

The total includes 637,000 cars, underselling same-month 2015 by 7.2% on a daily basis. Small cars are expected to perform the best, coming in close to even with year-ago. Light-truck sales, at 931,000 units, would account for 59.4% of LV sales, an all-time high for the month. All truck segments are forecast to beat last year.

Import sales will remain strong, coming in 9% above like-2015. With many light-truck plants at max capacity, domestic producers are struggling to keep up with demand.

Inventory is expected to rise from 3.76 million units at the end of May to 3.79 million at the end of June, leaving automakers with a strong 63 days’ supply at the forecast sales rate, up from May’s 59 and year-ago’s 60.

General Motors’ daily sales are forecast to decline 4.8% from year-ago, due largely to fewer fleet sales and relatively low incentives in the retail market. Total deliveries for the month of just under 257,000 cars and light trucks yield a 16.4% share of LV sales, compared with 17.6% last year. The year-to-date total will come in 4.3% below like-2015.

Ford’s DSR is expected to be flat with prior-year with 229,000 deliveries in the month, claiming 14.6% of market, down slightly from year-ago’s 15.0% share. Sales over the previous six months will exceed year-ago by 3.7%.

Toyota’s DSR will be up 1.3% from last year, on 221,000 deliveries. Its 6-month tally is expected to sit 0.9% below last year.

The forecast calls for FCA sales to reach 200,000 LVs with a 4.5% rise in daily sales, recording a year-over-year gain for 75 consecutive months. January-June sales will surpass 1,148,000 units, an 11-year high for the period.

Nissan’s DSR is forecast to rise 3.6%, resulting in 134,000 sales in June. The automaker’s sales in the first half of 2016 is forecast 7.5% above prior-year.

Honda is expected to be up 7.7% on a daily basis. Sales of 151,000 LVs in June will leave its 6-month total 6.8% greater than like-2015.

Hyundai Group will sell just over 137,000 vehicles, raising its year-to-date tally 4.0%.

Projected June LV sales would bring year-to-date deliveries to 8.66 million units, a 2.1% improvement from same-period 2015.

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