Launch Sequence

Calendar 2005 will bring 46 major redesigns or entirely new light vehicles to the U.S. market, compared with an average annual rate of 35 over the past seven years.

More than half of the market debuts are expected in the fourth quarter. But there is a good chance some will be pulled ahead into September, while others could be delayed until 2006. Some notable vehicles are coming early in 2005, including the new Dodge Charger, Hummer H3, Lincoln Mark LT and Saab 9-7X, as well as redesigns to the Kia Sportage, Nissan Xterra, Toyota Avalon and Volkswagen Jetta.

Over the last seven years, about 41% of new/redesigned vehicles have gone on sale in the fourth quarter, with the first and third quarters both at close to 21% and the second quarter garnering 17% of the new launches.

The exceptions were 1999, when several manufacturers pulled some intros into the third quarter from the fourth quarter, and in 2001 when General Motors Corp. started selling its redesigned large and midsize SUVs early in the year. Thus, fourth-quarter intros accounted for 32.4% and 34.4% in 1999 and 2001, respectively.

One company better at spacing out intros is Toyota Motor Corp. Its fourth-quarter average of 38.5% is close to the industry average, but 50% of the debuts typically occur during the first half of the year, compared with about 38% for the industry.

With 19 new vehicles overall coming in 2005 that do not directly replace any models from the prior year, there will be a net gain of four vehicle lines available to buyers by the end of 2005 — growing to 292 from 288 at the end of 2004.

Eight of the new models will be cross/utility vehicles (including the hybrid-electric Lexus RX 400h). Four will be pickups — including Honda Motor Co. Ltd.'s new Ridgeline — and three are SUVs, for a total 15 trucks.

Also new on the car front will be the Audi A3, Lincoln Zephyr and Pontiac Solstice roadster. Ford Motor Co. in the fourth quarter will roll out the Ford Fusion and Mercury Milan, which essentially replace the Ford Taurus and Mercury Sable for the retail market.

And redesigns are on tap for the Dodge Neon and Honda Civic. Among larger cars, Chevrolet will substantially restyle the Impala and Monte Carlo, Hyundai replaces the Sonata with a domestically produced version, and GM replaces the aged Buick LeSabre with the Lucerne.