U.S. Forecast: Sixth Consecutive Decline in June

A WardsAuto forecast calls for U.S. automakers to deliver 1.50 million light vehicles in June. A daily sales rate of 57,762 units over 26 days represents a 0.7% decline from like-2016 (also 26 days).

The DSR is 4.3% below the prior month, a softer drop than the 5% 3-year average downturn between the two months.

The report puts the seasonally adjusted annual rate of sales for the month at 16.82 million units, above year-ago’s 16.77 million and May’s 16.58 million mark.

General Motors is forecast to deliver 241,000 light vehicles, a 5.7% decrease versus year-ago. The automaker would account for 16.0% of the market, compared with 16.9% in like-2016. The year-to-date total is 1.9% behind same-period 2016.

Ford’s sales are expected to rise 0.6%. The forecasted 236,000 LV deliveries will give the automaker a 15.7% share of the market. For the first half of this year, sales will be down 2.8%.

The report calls for Toyota to gain 3.4% from year-ago on 205,000 LV deliveries. A 13.6% share of the market is above the 13.1% from prior-year. The forecasted year-to-date total is down 3.3%.

FCA US is projected to grab a 12.7% share in June vs.  13.3% last year. Sales of 191,000 units, 5.3% less than same-month 2016, yield a 6-month result down 6.5%.

Honda’s sales are expected to grow 3.4% to 144,000 units for the month. The forecast calls for Nissan to post a 1.9% decline from year-ago with 138,000 sales. Hyundai Group should see deliveries decline 6.3% to 122,000 LVs.

At forecast levels, June LV sales would bring the year-to-date total to 8.44 million units, down 1.8% from the first half of 2016.

May inventory levels fell less than 1% from April, compared with usual declines of 2% to 3%, and was approximately 14% above the optimum level for current market conditions, based on WardsAuto estimates. Vehicle stock is expected to remain high in June at around 4.16 million units, 1.5% greater than prior-month and 9.0% higher than June 2016.

WardsAuto is forecasting U.S. sales of 17.1 million units in calendar-year 2017. The outlook assumes a sales surge in the summer caused by deep price discounting or other means to trim the excess stock. If inventory is not cut by 400,000 to 500,000 units by September, another sell-off is possible in Q4, probably December. Without such a surge, sales are heading to 16.8 million units for the year.

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