North American Q3 Output Takes Hit

Chastened by moderate demand, some auto makers are paring their robust third-quarter North American production plans just a month after posting them for the first time.

With Ford yet to report, auto makers in their most recent actions have slimmed July-September output plans some 4%, or 147,000 units, but still intend to build 3,449,200 vehicles, or 13.5% more than the 3,039,600 assembled in like-2010.

Toyota one of few auto makers boosting Q3 Output.

That’s down from the 18.3% gain posted a month ago, when the industry planned to produce 3,597,200 cars and trucks.

Related document: North America Production Schedule Q3

At the lower volume, the third quarter now ranks 13th, instead of eighth, but that output still would have been ranked near the top for the quarter prior to the industry’s record-breaking 4,048,200-unit performance of 1999.

Some of the lost volume can be related to auto makers rethinking prior plans to reduce or eliminate annual plant vacation downtime, factoring some of it back into their production programs, as well as trimming output of some vehicles with high or rising inventories.

For the most part, production plans for smaller, fuel-efficient vehicles are holding steady or increasing modestly.

The paring is far from universal.

While Chrysler, GM and Honda collectively are cutting output by 161,400 units, BMW, Toyota, Volkswagen and dedicated medium- and heavy-duty truck makers are cautiously boosting their slates. Others are making minor adjustments to their third-quarter ledgers.

The latest round of cuts comes on top of an estimated 57,500-unit reduction in April-June output, led by an 85,900-unit adjustment by GM and Honda, offset to some degree by increases from BMW, Nissan, Toyota and others.

Production in January-September now stands at 10,118,500 vehicles, 9.7% ahead of prior-year’s 9,122,700, owing to a 10.9% increase in truck output vs. 9.9% for cars.

With most Japanese auto makers hoping to have full North American plant operations restored by the end of the third quarter, they will be looking at boost production going into the year’s final stretch.

That includes the addition of a second shift at Honda’s Greensburg, IN, facility by year’s end and the restoration of the full 2-shift operation at the auto maker’s Marysville, OH, factory in January.

Transplants account for 40.5% of current January-September production, trailing like-2010’s 42.9%. The Detroit Three hold a 57.3% share, compared with prior-year’s 55.5%.

Medium- and heavy-duty truck makers are responsible for 2.2% of output through the third quarter, up from 1.6% in 2010.

[email protected]