GM’s Top Economist Raises 2015 Forecast 500,000 Units

TRAVERSE CITY, MI – General Motors’ top economist is raising his original 2015 U.S. sales forecast by more than a half-million vehicles.

Mustafa Mohatarem, commenting after his address at the Management Briefing Seminars, says he has added 500,000 units this year to his initial projection.

“We originally were at 16.5 to 17 million,” he says. “But in reality, we have recalibrated to the 17 to 17.5 million range.”

Mohatarem credits growing employment and near-zero inflation as major factors in the rosier outlook. GM has kept a lid on big incentive programs, he says, which automakers typically use to stir sales.

Even so, he says his forecast remains conservative. “I’m like everybody else. We all plan conservatively because we’d rather be wrong on the low side than on the high side.”

Asked if there may be a “buy-ahead” element in the industry’s vigorous sales pace that could borrow from future sales at some point, Mohatarem says he doubts that.

Boding well for continuing sales strength is the likelihood fuel prices will drop to around $2.40 a gallon next month when EPA-mandated summer blends costing an extra $0.15 a gallon expire, he says. “This should reinforce the (upward) trend,” Mohatarem says.