Life With the Jetsons: Personal VTOL Aircraft Take Off

Well-respected players are beginning to make announcements that may suggest that we are on the cusp of a Jetsons-type air transportation system. In October, Uber laid out its plans for developing an “on-demand aviation” system using a network of small, electric VTOL (Vertical Take-Off and Landing) vehicles.¹ Larry Page (cofounder of Google) is believed to be building a version of a VTOL craft in Silicon Valley.² And Airbus is developing a personal VTOL aircraft as part of its Project Vahana, under its Silicon Valley division.³

With competition heating up, time lines have become aggressive. Uber Elevate believes it will have operational vehicles in the sky within the next five years (and most experts seem to agree). Uber does not plan to build its own vehicles. Rather, it expects that–given the current market trajectory and activity–the commercial VTOL market will rise to the challenge and deliver a variety of vehicle options by 2023.

There certainly seems to be demand for new forms of transport, particularly within congested cities. According to a recent report by KPMG LLP, mobility services are expected to become a $1 trillion market by 2030.⁴ And as noted in the KPMG LLP report titled The clockspeed dilemma, consumers are now looking for a “sexy, dynamic experience”⁵ from their personal transport choice. There’s no doubt that a VTOL aircraft will be sexy and dynamic.

Based on this view of the future, we believe there are five things that mobility players should be doing to prepare for a Jetsons-like future.

Find your place in the world. Aerospace and automotive manufacturers alike–both OEMs and suppliers–must carefully consider where they want to play in the new environment and then invest in the right areas and capabilities to achieve that objective. Take a long-term view of market disruption.

Look around for opportunity. Massive new markets are being created and commercialized all the time. Think about how your existing capabilities and technologies may answer a new need in adjacent markets.

Make smart friends. Developing a VTOL aircraft–or any other new transportation technology–will require aerospace and automotive players to develop and cultivate an ecosystem of partners and suppliers that can innovate with them.

Talk to the boss. Likely the biggest barrier to the commercialization of new forms of aircraft is regulation. It will take time for the Federal Aviation Administration to get comfortable with the idea of personal VTOLs, particularly in an Uber-like model. Aerospace players will want to start working with regulators to define the market early on.

Keep innovating. New ideas and technologies are proliferating in this space. Companies will need to keep innovating – and quickly – to beat the competition for this slice of the mobility market.

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