North American Auto Makers Set Q3 Production Slate

Auto makers are setting their sights on building 3,767,400 cars and trucks in North American assembly plants in the year’s third quarter, a 15% improvement compared with year-ago, when Japanese transplants were operating far below capacity, if at all, due to parts shortages caused by natural disasters.

July-September production traditionally is weaker than the April-June period as a number of factories close for a few days to several weeks for vacation and model changeover.

The Q3 plan follows a seesaw second quarter in which the total number of vehicles slated for completion rose and fell as some auto makers added units and others cut back, with the latest adjustments bringing estimated output to 4,086,800.

Averaged over the full 63 available workdays, planned Q3 production averages 59,800 units daily, up from 52,016 in like-2011 but 9.3% less than the 65,916-unit pace booked for Q2, which also has 63 workdays.

However, the drop in production from April-June is just 1.5% if the Q3 workday schedule is adjusted to account for normal summer downtime, boosting daily output to 64,955 cars and trucks.

Third-quarter 2011 daily builds increased 2.1% on an unadjusted basis (10.9% adjusted for downtime), with Japanese transplants regaining momentum as supply lines were rebuilt.

The North American July-September slate includes 1,633,400 cars, accounting for 43.4% of total third-quarter production, down slightly from 44.8% in April-June as auto makers react to increasing truck demand.

Chrysler’s plan is the most aggressive among the Detroit Three, calling for a 23.9% increase in Q3 output vs. year-ago, compared with Ford’s 5.5% hike and GM’s 2.2%. That follows a similar pattern in the Q2 slate, in which Chrysler is calling for a 20.1% increase compared with Ford’s 2.0% and GM’s 1.4 %.

Among the transplants, Honda, hardest hit by 2011’s parts shortages, continues to be the most assertive, with its Q3 production schedule calling for 36.3% more vehicle builds compared with prior-year. That’s still down substantially from its 153.9% Q2 gain.

Likewise, Toyota is increasing Q3 output 55.6% compared with year-ago, but down from the 143.5% boost in April-June. Least affected by the forced output cuts last year, Nissan intends to build some 3.6% fewer vehicles in Q3 than year-ago following a 24.7% Q2 gain.

Overall North American production in the year’s first nine months is slated at 11,920,500 vehicles, up 20.0% from 9,932,200 units in like-2011.

The Detroit Three are set to operate at 108.6% of their year-ago pace, compared with 136.7% for transplants and 123.9% for the dedicated medium- and heavy-duty truck makers.

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