North American Q1 Production Steady, Despite Adjustments

Auto makers have been tweaking their robust first-quarter North American production plans, but the result of their busy work is a mere 1,300-unit increase in January-March output.

With Ford still mulling its changes, the industry now is set to build 3,798,900 cars and trucks in the period, up slightly from 3,797,600 a month ago and still 10.3% ahead of prior-year’s 3,443,800 completions.

The overall direction of the changes indicates a 4,800-unit increase in the number of cars slated for completion in January-March, largely offset by a reduction of 3,500 in light-truck production.

Car assemblies are set to increase by 3,600 units in January and 3,700 in February, with some of that pulled forward from March, which has been cut by 2,500.

Some, 4,000 truck assemblies have been pulled from the January slate and 2,800 from March, with a 3,300-unit February boost partially offsetting those cutbacks, all of which will take place at light-duty truck plants mainly in Mexico.

Dedicated medium- and heavy-duty truck makers are holding fast to their previously announced first-quarter plans.

On a total-vehicle basis, the largest first-quarter adjustment comes from Volkswagen. The German auto maker is adding 9,100 units: 6,000 in Mexico and 3,100 in the U.S. as demand strengthens for its newest Beetle, Jetta and Passat models.

That’s followed by a 3,000-unit increase at Toyota, while General Motors pulls 7,500 vehicles from its schedule.

The strong first-quarter program follows a revised fourth-quarter 2011 tally down 47,300 units due in large measure to GM’s 24,500-unit December underbuild, with lesser estimated shortfalls at Ford and Chrysler.

In addition, Honda, which has been having trouble steadying its North American output following the natural disasters last year in Japan and Thailand, posted a final November production figure 23,200 vehicles less than earlier estimates, along with a December underbuild of at least 6,100 units.

The latest fourth-quarter revisions brought 2011 production to a close at an estimated 13,392,000 units, 10.2% ahead of 12,153,600 completions in the prior year.

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