Q3 Gets 23,400-Unit Boost

North American automotive assembly plant workers will have to pick up the pace this month to meet the robust August output plan into which production planners have injected an additional 94,300 vehicles.

However, a large portion of that gain is the result of shifting output of some 70,900 car and truck assemblies to August from July and September, the latter having lost 57,100 vehicles. 

Overall, automakers have adjusted the latest third-quarter production slate upwards to 4,531,100 units, 1.1% ahead of the 4,431,100 built in like-2015 and 23,400 units more than had been scheduled a month ago.  

Not surprisingly, truck production has been boosted by 90,600 units, to 2,850,900 from the 2,760,300 tagged for completion as the quarter opened. That gain was due entirely to increased output of light-duty models, as automakers scramble to keep up with soaring demand.

Indeed, dedicated medium- and heavy-duty truck manufacturers took 500 units out of their Q3 slates in September.

Flagging consumer interest has prompted a 67,200-unit reduction in July-September car output, including an estimated 32,500-unit July shortfall and a 48,900-unit cut in September. Partially offsetting that was a modest 14,200-unit addition to the August plan.

The biggest output adjustment during this round of revisions came at Fiat Chrysler, where 45,900 light-truck assemblies were added, including an estimated July overbuild of 30,900 units. Those gains were offset to a small degree by the elimination of a net 3,500 car assemblies, in which an estimated 6,500-unit July shortfall is partially restored by increases of 2,500 in August and 500 units in September.

At the same time, Ford’s official Q3 plan fell 22,400 vehicles short of what WardsAuto earlier had forecast for the Dearborn automaker, the shortfall consisting of a 30,800-unit decline in cars, offset somewhat by an increase of 8,400 light-trucks.

Like the industry overall, the bulk of Ford’s third-quarter changes takes place in August, with 39,500 vehicle assemblies (including 800 cars) added to the roster.

Still, it must be noted the latest Q3 increase doesn’t completely recover the 36,000 units “lost” in final second-quarter production revisions, where output dropped from an estimated 4,731,600 to 4,695,600. Ford, General Motors and Nissan together finished April-June 36,400 units below earlier estimates, with a gain of 17,300 at FCA offset by shortfalls among the transplant automakers.

North American output for January-September now stands at 13,769,400 cars and trucks, 1.8% ahead of the 13,522,800 tallied a year ago.

FCA, Ford and GM are slated to build  a combined 7,055,900 vehicles in the period, 0.8% more than the 6,997,200 turned out in like-2015.

At the same time 6,445,800 transplant assemblies are on tap, 4% more than the 6,197,700 units built a year ago, while output from the medium- and heavy-duty truck producers is slated at 267,700,  or 18.4% less than prior-year’s build of 327,900 units.

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