Record Q3 Output Set

Amid strong sales expectations and the launch of new and/or revised ’15 models gathering steam, automakers are scheduling record North American production of 4,402,400 cars and trucks in the third quarter.

The robust Q3 slate is 3.8% higher than the prior record of 4,048,235 units built in like-1999 and 6.2% ahead of 3,956,080 completions in July-September 2013, the industry’s fourth-highest tally for the quarter.

Third-quarter output hit its modern-day nadir amid the economic collapse of 2009, when assembly plants rolled out just 2,392,676 units.

With Ford yet to report its July-September plans (current data include a WardsAuto forecast for the Dearborn automaker), the picture could brighten further if Ford hikes its output for the period more than anticipated.

In an about face, car production plans call for a 7.8% gain from year-ago in Q3,  to 1,797,700 units from 1,666,300, with trucks climbing 5.0% to 2,405,700, from the 2,290,500 vehicles built in like-2013.

The record-setting third-quarter pace also is bolstered by some units having been rescheduled from the second quarter, which is expected to end at a level 27,800 units lower than had been planned a month ago.

North American plants now are expected to build 4,408,700 vehicles in April-June, 1.4% less than year-ago’s 4,348,700 units.

That largely reflects a significant downward adjustment in May, estimated to fall 23,600 units below plan due to a more-gradual-than-expected launch of new models at Chrysler and General Motors, all of which is slated to be recaptured in July-September.

The industry’s June plan also has been trimmed by 4,500 units.

Lower-than-expected car output, off 5.4%, accounts for most of the second-quarter decline, with
truck production set for a year-over-year gain of 6.7%.

Output through September is scheduled to reach 12,902,800 units, a 4.1% increase from the 12,391,500 cars and trucks built in like-2013.

The Detroit Three have slated 6,808,800 units for completion in the period, 2.9% more than the 6,619,200 vehicles built a year earlier. That accounts for 52.8% of the industry’s output plan, down slightly from 53.4% in like-2013.

Transplant production is scheduled to reach 5,834,700 units through September, 5.7% ahead of prior-year’s 5,522,800 units, giving them a 45.2% production share vs. 44.6%.

Dedicated medium- and heavy-duty truck makers are slated to build 3.8% more vehicles this year, 259,300 units compared with year-ago’s 259,900, accounting for 2.0% of output, the same as in 2013.

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