Record Q3 Output Slated update from June 2016

Automakers plan to build 4,518,500 cars and trucks in their North American plants in July-September, an all-time record for a traditional vacation/model changeover period.

If achieved, it would be the third consecutive Q3 output benchmark, one that is 2.1% higher than prior-year’s 4,482,700 assemblies and 5.5% above the 4,282,576 units turned out in like-2014.

It marks only the fourth time in history Q3 output has topped the 4.0 million mark, starting with a then-record 4,048,235 vehicles in 1999.

To achieve the July-September output plan, workers in the Canada, Mexico and the U.S. will have to build 69,515 vehicles on each of an average 65 work days, up from 68,965 a year ago.

However, that could change if Ford, still mulling its third-quarter plan, puts forth an official slate significantly higher than the 712,200 units forecast by WardsAuto.

Truck output for the period is seen falling slightly below that of a year ago, 2,766,700 vs. 2,785,900, due to a slight decline in the Ford forecast and significant production shortfall among the dedicated medium- and heavy-truck manufacturers, whose sales to trucking fleets are being hampered by a shortage of drivers.

Car production in the quarter is slated to rise 3.2% over like-2015 to 1,751,800 completions from 1,696,800.

The record third-quarter outlook comes on the heels of a second-quarter finish now seen reaching 4,740,900 units or 1.9% more than the 4,651,400 turned output in like-2015.

The latest April-June tally is 31,700 units higher than it was a month ago, thanks to a 32,900-unit upward adjustment in the final April count, and a 2,200-unit increase in May’s estimated total. These increases are offset partly by the deletion of 3,300 vehicles from the June schedule.

Overall, the second-quarter tally has increased by 30,100 trucks and 1,600 cars in the past 30 days.

North American production in the first nine months is set to reach 13,811,700 cars and trucks, a 2.1% gain on the 13,522,800 units rolled out in like-2015. That includes 4.8% more trucks and 2.0% fewer cars.

With 7,033,100 vehicle assemblies slated through September, the Detroit Three producers are running at 100.5% of their prior-year tally.

Transplants’ 6,513,400-unit schedule is 105.1% of year-ago, while dedicated medium- and heavy-duty truck makers, with 265,200 units slated for completion, are operating at just 80.9% of their prior-year level.

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