Shift to CVT Gearboxes Coming Up on 30th Anniversary

TOKYO – Three decades ago, a small Japanese automaker took a big step by introducing a relatively obscure transmission technology from an engineering firm based in the Netherlands.

Fuji Heavy Industries, maker of Subaru cars, introduced a car with a continuously variable transmission in February 1987. The engineering firm was Van Doorne Transmissie.

Fuji wasn't first to adopt Van Doorne’s technology, but its decision triggered a move inside Nissan, at the time a minor shareholder in Fuji, to incorporate the technology into the automaker’s much larger product portfolio. Nissan would go on to develop its own technology and, in 2006, would begin a major overhaul of its powertrain lineup with its Jatco subsidiary, resulting in more than half of Nissan cars adopting CVTs.

Other automakers and suppliers have followed Nissan’s lead with CVTs, but also have introduced dual-clutch transmissions and higher-gear automatics.

Mercedes introduced the industry’s first 7-speed automatic in 2003, the same year Volkswagen commercialized the first DCT. Toyota followed in 2006 with an 8-speed gearbox for Lexus cars supplied by Aisin. In 2013, Germany's ZF Friedrichshafen began producing 9-speed automatics.Aisin. In 2013, Germany's ZF Friedrichshafen began producing 9-speed automatics.

As a result of these moves, the global share held by manual transmissions and 6-speed and lower-gear automatics fell from 80% in 2010 to 70% in 2015. That share is going to decrease further to an estimated 50% over the next five years, according to a WardsAuto forecast.

In 2020, WardsAuto predicts CVTs will account for 15% of global transmission demand, up from 12% in 2015. DCTs will grow to 17% from 11%, while 7- through 10-speed automatics will increase to 18% from 7%. Within the automatic-transmission segment, WardsAuto predicts transmissions with seven or more speeds will account for 62% of 2020 sales, up from 21%.

Combined sales of CVTs, DCTs and higher-gear automatic transmissions will total 50 million, or 49% of global demand in 2020, up from 31.5%, according to WardsAuto. Included will be 15.3 million CVTs, up 45% from 2015; 17 million DCTs, up 71%; and 17.8 million higher-gear automatics, up 178%.

Sales of manual transmissions in 2020 will be relatively flat at 40.6 million units, up marginally from 39.1 million in 2015, while demand for lower-gear automatic transmissions – six speeds or less – will fall more than 50% to 10.8 million.

At the 2015 SAE World Congress, Oliver Miersch-Wiemers, director-engineering and project management at Tier 1 supplier Robert Bosch, predicted 8-, 9- and 10-speed transmissions eventually would account for 90% of demand in the U.S.

“In the past, a great car had eight cylinders and four speeds,” he said. “In the future, a great car will have more than eight speeds and (just) four cylinders.”

Speaking at this year’s SAE World Congress in April, John Juriga, director-powertrain for  Hyundai America Technical Center, contended DCTs offer more potential than either CVTs or higher-gear automatic transmissions. Juriga said DCTs are 94%-97% as efficient as manual transmissions, compared with 83%-85% for CVTs and 86%-93% for automatic transmissions. “DCTs offer both good fuel economy and good drivability,” he said.

Aisin, Aisin, Jatco, ZF, Hyundai Lead Way

AisinAisin, the world’s largest producer of automatic transmissions, has set an aggressive 2020 sales target of 10 million units, which would give it a 10% global market share based on sales of 100 million light vehicles. The supplier’s total includes both automatic transmissions and CVTs.

In fiscal 2015, it produced 7.4 million automatic transmissions and CVTs. Automatics range from 4- to 10-speed. To meet its 2020 target, Aisin would need to grow sales annually nearly 7% over the next five years.Aisin would need to grow sales annually nearly 7% over the next five years.

In Europe and North America, Aisin delivers 8-speed transmissions to BMW, Volvo and General Motors and in Japan, mostly for Toyota’s Lexus brands. The supplier introduced the world’s first 8-speed automatic for rear-drive cars in 2006, then for front-drive cars in 2013. Its latest gearbox, a 10-speed automatic, will debut next year with the launch of the Lexus LC500 luxury coupe.Aisin delivers 8-speed transmissions to BMW, Volvo and General Motors and in Japan, mostly for Toyota’s Lexus brands. The supplier introduced the world’s first 8-speed automatic for rear-drive cars in 2006, then for front-drive cars in 2013. Its latest gearbox, a 10-speed automatic, will debut next year with the launch of the Lexus LC500 luxury coupe.

Elsewhere in Japan, Jatco, Nissan’s main transmission supplier, has set a 2020 sales target of more than 8.5 million units. In fiscal 2015, the supplier delivered 5.5 million transmissions including 4.5 million CVTs.

Jatco plans to increase production capacity an estimated 3 million units over the next five years, mostly outside Japan where it operates plants in Mexico, China and Thailand.

Nissan uses Jatco’s 7-speed automatic for the Z370 and Infiniti Q50, Q60, Q70, QX50, QX70 and QX 80 models. The transmission manufacturer expects to offer 8-, 9- and 10-speeds but offers no timeframe.

In South Korea, Hyundai Powertech and Hyundai Daimos are leading the move by Hyundai and Kia into new-generation transmissions.

Hyundai Powertech is the main automatic transmission supplier to both Hyundai and Kia. It also supplies CVTs to both automakers and has capacity to produce 2.8 million units with plants in the U.S., China, Mexico and South Korea.

Hyundai Powertech’s rear-drive 8-speed automatic, introduced in 2011, is installed in the Hyundai Genesis, Mohave and Equus and Kia K9 and K900 models. The supplier will provide Kia with its first 8-speed automatic for front-drive cars on the ʼ17 Cadenza.

Hyundai Daimos steadily is increasing production of dual-clutch gearboxes. Including both 6- and 7-speed versions, DCTs now are available in Hyundai’s Ioniq, Sonata, Elantra, i30, i40, Tucson and Veloster, as well as the Kia Accent, Optima, K5 and Niro.

German supplier ZF provides 8-speed automatics to BMW, Audi and other European automakers and delivers 9-speed units to Honda from its South Carolina plant for the TLX, MDX and Pilot. ZF estimates its 9-speed unit achieves 12% better fuel economy than its 6-speed.

From that plant, and through a licensing arrangement with FCA US at its Kokomo, IN, plant, ZF also supplies 9-speed automatics to Land Rover for the Evoque and Discovery models and to FCA for the Chrysler 200 and Pacifica, Jeep Cherokee and Renegade, and Fiat 500x.

It also supplies 8-speed automatics also built in South Carolina and Indiana to FCA for the Jeep Grand Cherokee, Chrysler 300 and Dodge Charger, Challenger, Ram and Durango models.