Diesel Invasion

Auto makers are planning to introduce more than 20 car and truck models in North America featuring a new type of engine that gets 30% better fuel economy — and is up to 70% better pulling a heavy load.

With those kinds of numbers, shouldn't consumers be beating down dealership doors? Why isn't Congress demanding all future vehicles be equipped with this new miracle engine?

Instead, the response so far from all but a small group of enthusiasts has been a big collective yawn.

This miraculous powerplant, of course, is the diesel engine. It's a 100-year-old technology that can beat hybrid-electric vehicles in efficiency during most real-world American-style highway commutes.

What's more, thanks to sophisticated new emissions control and exhaust aftertreatment systems that trap, eliminate or chemically neuter soot and oxides of nitrogen, these new diesels also are very clean burning.

They can meet California's super-tough LEV 2 standards and the Environmental Protection Agency's toughest Tier 2, Bin 5 regulations, allowing them to be sold in all 50 states.

Yet, these amazing engines remain misunderstood and stigmatized by most of the U.S. car-buying public. Sky-high diesel fuel prices up to $1 more per gallon compared with regular unleaded have not helped.

“When people look for fuel economy, most consumers think of hybrids first before thinking of diesels. We've done studies of consumer acceptance of alternative powertrains, and we've found that 62% of consumers say they would consider a hybrid, but only 16% say they'd consider a diesel,” says Michael Omotoso, senior manager-global powertrain at J.D. Power & Associates.

In one study released by J.D. Power last June, clean-diesel engines finished dead last in terms of consumer interest in 20 safety, comfort, infotainment and powertrain technologies. Just 6% of respondents were “definitely interested,” despite the fuel savings and performance benefits delivered by the technology.

For model-year '07, hybrids accounted for 2.3% of U.S. light-vehicle powertrains, compared with 2.4% penetration for diesels, according to Ward's engine installation data.

Questionable demand for diesels and the high cost of emissions mitigation technology have even given formerly staunch diesel backers such as Chrysler LLC the jitters. It reportedly is rethinking its plan to build a Jeep Grand Cherokee featuring a diesel engine equipped with the latest Bluetec emissions control technology, which would enable it to meet 50-state Tier 2 bin 5 standards.

Despite technology advances and unparalleled popularity in Europe, bad experiences from three decades ago still haunt diesel's image in the U.S. Many consumers continue to think of them as noisy, smoky and underpowered.

And, unlike Europe, where diesel fuel is priced the same or less than gasoline, diesel in the U.S. is running well above regular unleaded. To some, that negates the 20% to 30% better fuel economy diesels typically deliver.

Adding to the negatives are the initial premium for the diesel engine, itself, which can run into thousands of dollars unless it is partially subsidized by the manufacturer. There also is the specter of forcing drivers to add a new fluid to their regular maintenance routine: urea for the emission systems of larger diesel engines.

Diesel proponents hope the new wave of highly attractive diesel-powered vehicles hitting the U.S. market will go a long way in dispelling negative stereotypes. The earliest entries into the new diesel market will be from European marques such as VW, Audi AG, BMW AG and Mercedes-Benz, as well as light-duty truck entries from General Motors Corp., Ford Motor Co. and Chrysler LLC, but Honda Motor Co. Ltd, Subaru, Nissan Motor Co. Ltd. and Toyota Motor Corp. also will offer products by 2010.

Possible game-changers include the recently introduced VW Jetta TDI sedan, the BMW 3-Series 335d and several ground-breaking models from Honda.

VW says its Jetta TDI will deliver better fuel efficiency and more low-end torque than gasoline-powered cars. It delivers an estimated 29 mpg city (8 L/100 km) and 40 mpg hwy (6 L/100 km), according to the Environmental Protection Agency. However, VW says third-party research suggests performance closer to 38/44 city/hwy (6/5 L 100/km).

The BMW 335d features a tire-scorching 3.0L twin-turbo I-6 that should dispel any lingering ideas that diesels cannot get out of their own way.

And Honda enters the U.S. diesel arena in 2009 with a new clean diesel in an Acura. Dubbed “i-DTEC,” Honda's second-generation diesel technology already is available in the European Accord. A 2.4L I-4 and possible V-6 is expected in a variety of Honda and Acura applications in the next two years, including Accord, Acura TSX and maybe even Odyssey minivan applications.

A gathering of technical experts from the government, auto makers and the fuels industry at a recent U.S. Department of Energy-organized conference suggest much of the skepticism about diesels is overblown. Among their findings:

Michael Leister, fuels technology manager, Marathon Petroleum Co. LLC, allays fears of a diesel fuel shortage caused by a ballooning population of light-duty diesels in the U.S.

While demand for diesel fuel is expected to grow in the U.S. as well as globally, gasoline use actually is expected to fall because of U.S. government renewable-fuel mandates, Leister says.

Refineries have the ability to “swing” 6% to 8% of their volume between gasoline and diesel production, Leister says. With gasoline demand slowing, refineries should be able to crank up diesel production in the near term by shifting capacity.

Norbert Krause, director-engineering and environmental office, Volkswagen Group of America Inc., brushes off concerns about price.

He says the diesel option package on the '09 Jetta costs $2,000, including other special features, but the car qualifies for a $1,300 income-tax credit. The value equation is enhanced further by much higher residual values.

The HEV culture brings a sense that environmental responsibility is more important than driving fun and saving money on fuel requires compromise, he says. But diesels allow drivers to save money on fuel and drive an environmentally friendly vehicle without sacrificing performance. “People don't want to compromise.”

Kevin McMahon, a partner at the Martec Group, a market-research and consulting company that recently completed a study on the U.S. diesel market, says even today's revised U.S. Environmental Protection Agency fuel-economy test cycle does not accurately represent the driving habits of most Americans, which primarily is non-urban.

That translates into EPA fuel-economy ratings that overestimate average fuel economy for HEVs and underestimate mileage figures for diesels.

Several experts also note a large percentage of Americans drive well above the speed limit on the freeway, which has a major impact on the mileage of most HEVs but less so on diesels.

Ultimately, diesels fare very well against HEVs in a real-world, miles-per-dollar comparison that is two-thirds highway driving, McMahon says.

Debbie Brodt-Giles, senior project leader-National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Center for Transportation Technologies and Systems, acknowledges that having to periodically add urea fluid to the emission-control systems of larger diesel-powered vehicles such as CUVs and heavy-duty trucks poses some challenges.

“Consumers don't know what DEF (diesel exhaust fluid), or urea, is. They need to be trained to use it,” she says. Diesel engines generally larger than 2.0L will require urea additives during routine scheduled maintenance.

However, she says U.S. government agencies and other organizations are mounting major educational efforts to assist diesel owners. For instance, she says a government website will feature a Google map-based DEF locater service that will enable users to find the nearest retail outlets that sell urea, along with route guidance.

Brodt-Giles says the mapping and location service will be ready to go this fall.

J.D. Power's most current forecast pegs U.S. diesel vehicle sales to hit 1.7 million units by 2015, or 10% of a 17.2 million-unit market, outpacing HEV sales, which are predicted to comprise 8% of the market by then.

That's far lower than the optimistic industry forecasts made by some suppliers several years ago predicting 15% U.S. market share for diesels. And even J.D. Powers' earlier forecast of 11.5% share has been dialed back. But the compression-ignition engine still is making a big leap from today's levels, J.D. Power's Omotoso says.

The U.S. market never will come close to Europe, where more than half of all light vehicles are powered by oil burners. Instead, the lion's share of the growth will be from diesel-powered light- and medium-duty pickup trucks — as well as large SUVs and cross/utility vehicles — from GM, Ford, Chrysler, Toyota and possibly Nissan.

GM is introducing a 4.5L V-8 diesel for light trucks in 2009 that can fit anywhere its current gasoline V-8 small-block engines are installed, in addition to its current lineup of medium-duty diesels. Ford is introducing a 4.4L V-8 diesel for its medium-duties.

Tom Stephens, executive vice president-GM Global Powertrain and Quality, says the 4.5L is too powerful for a car application, but makes a lot of sense to some light-truck consumers.

“The logic is that light-duty pickups still do some towing and hauling. When you look at a diesel's fuel economy, typically it is quoted as a 25% improvement, which is true. But if you have a vehicle that's going to tow or haul, under load, a diesel's fuel efficiency improves to somewhere between 40% and 70%. That increase in fuel efficiency really helps when you are trying to decide if this is a cost-effective purchase,” Stephens says.

Dan Kapp, director-advanced research and engineering at Ford, agrees. Ford's near-term strategy for coping with soaring fuel prices is smaller-displacement gasoline engines augmented by direct-fuel injection and turbocharging, which it calls EcoBoost.

But Ford's mid-term strategy includes light-duty diesels in heavier vehicles, such as the Ford F-150, beginning in 2009 or 2010, Kapp adds, citing the same rationale as GM's Stephens.

So will this new invasion of diesel-powered cars and trucks sell? Yes, most of the cars likely will be popular with relatively small numbers of enthusiasts and knowledgeable penny pinchers, but most of the volume will be in more traditional applications such as light- and medium-duty trucks. As a group, they will even outsell popular HEVs for the foreseeable future if you include the Detroit Three's medium-duty trucks.

But it's likely this new invasion will be so quiet and smoke- and odor-free, most consumers will barely notice their growing presence.
— with Mike Sutton

THE COMING U.S. DIESEL INVASION*

Audi (2009)

3.0L TDI V-6

Q7 cross/utility vehicle

BMW

3.0L twin-turbo I-6 (2009)

335d, X5 35d

Chrysler/Cummins (2009)

5.0L

Dodge Ram, light trucks.

Chrysler/Jeep (current)

3.0L V-6

Grand Cherokee

Ford 4.4L V-8 mini Powerstroke (2009 or 2010)

Ford F-150/Expedition, Super Duty

GM 4.5L mini Duramax (2009)

Silverado/GMC Sierra half-ton pickups

Honda/Acura (2009)

2.4L I-4, possible V-6

Acura TSX, RDX, Honda CR-V, Pilot, Accord, Odyssey

Mahindra (2009)

2.4L turbodiesel I-4

Pickup truck

Mercedes-Benz (Current)

3.0L Bluetec V-6

GL, ML, R-Class CUVs

(3.0L CDI already available in E-Class)

2.2L I-4 (2009)

GLK CUV

Nissan 3.0L V-6 (2010)

Maxima

Light-duty diesel (2010 or 2011)

Titan pickup

Subaru (2009)

2.2L H-4

Legacy, Impreza

Toyota (2010)

V-8

Tundra, Sequoia

VW (Current)

2.0L TDI I-4

Jetta sedan, SportWagen

3.0L TDI V-6 (2009)

VW Touareg CUV
*Ward's and industry sources

Clean Diesel Languishing on Consumer Radar, Survey Shows
WardsAuto.com/ar/clean_diesel_languishing/

Bluetec Grand Cherokee Rollout on Rocks
subscribers.WardsAuto.com/ar/blutec_grand_cherokee_080910/

Mercedes Previews Bluetec CUVs
WardsAuto.com/ar/mercedes_bluetec_cuvs/