Engine Forecast

Saying high fuel prices can be expected well into the next decade, powertrain specialists at the recent Global Powertrain Conference in Novi, MI, present an intriguing snapshot of what the automotive powertrain landscape may look like from 2010 to 2025.

Diesels and gasoline engines using direct-injection technology — and soon, engines blending the two combustion processes — will dominate in the near- and mid-term, says Philip Gott, director-automotive consulting for Global Insight Inc.

Meanwhile, the prospects for hybrid-electric vehicles (HEVs) are not so rosy.

When Global Insight produced its previous powertrain technology report in 2001, “we thought HEVs were going to be the panacea in the market,” says Gott. But the real-world fuel economy for HEVs is proving they do not save enough to justify the high price of the technology, he adds.

Only ecologically minded consumers driven to save fuel with little regard to payback for their investment in fuel-saving technology can be expected to continue to purchase HEVs at their current cost over conventional powertrains, he says.

It is almost impossible to derive true payback for the HEV investment, he adds, “unless consumers have the duty cycle of a taxicab,” referring to the fact most HEVs demonstrate meaningful fuel-economy gains only in heavy start-and-stop driving situations.

Global Insight predicts HEV sales will peak at 10%-12% of the global market in the 2020-2025 timeframe. This is one area of powertrain development, Gott admits, that the firm's experts had misread. He says its 2001 powertrain forecast saw HEVs of some sort winning as much as 90% of the North American market in the same timeframe.

Now, Global Insight predicts diesels will win market share globally, topping out in Europe in about 2010 as diesel's cost-effectiveness peaks.