Reliability, Cost Issues Persist

In the 1970s, when the total value of electronics on a car equaled about $20, visionaries spoke of automated highways and radar-activated automatic braking systems and solving myriad regulatory and environmental issues with silicon and software. At the same time, skeptics worried about reliability, product liability and cost.

At the Convergence conference last month, members of a Blue Ribbon Panel outlined the enormous strides the industry has made during the past three decades. The October conference marked the 30th anniversary of Convergence in Detroit.

The panel acknowledged that although technology has advanced, many old problems persist and some of the most ambitious goals stubbornly remain on the horizon.

In separate presentations, panelists Trevor O. Jones, CEO of Biomec Inc. and founder of Convergence; Metaldyne Chairman Timothy D. Leuliette; Francois J. Castaing, president-Castaing & Associates; and Bernard I. Robertson, retired Chrysler Group senior vice president, each took a decade of Convergence history and reviewed the ups and downs.

The discussion ranged from its humble beginnings in 1974, with 300 attendees (and only two electronic parts on a car), to the heady days of 2000, when there were 9,000 attendees and it was predicted cars soon would become electronic “Java browsers on wheels,” to today's optimistic but more realistic era.

In a lively and entertaining presentation, Bran Ferren, co-chairman and chief creative officer of Applied Minds Inc. — the only non-automotive panelist — warned engineers not to lose their energy or vision.

But he added that the U.S.'s declining education system could derail their goals by producing a generation of sub-standard engineers and uneducated consumers.

Ferren spoke about the possibility of having telematics systems in cars that update electronic mapping systems with the location of every pothole they hit, so local road crews can be dispatched to make a fix. But he cautioned if science and math curriculums aren't improved, “you won't have anybody but dummies to engineer your car.”

For long-time attendees, each presentation was a bittersweet recap of events, innovations, triumphs and disappointments.

Jones said the 1970s sessions discussed gas-electric hybrid powertrains and collision avoidance systems. But it also was the era when seatbelt interlocks were promulgated and then outlawed in the same year.

Leuliette described the 1980s as the decade when the industry decided, “superior world vehicles would be the result of electronics,” fuel-injection systems replaced carburetors and antilock brake systems went mainstream. However, he says it also was a time when the proliferation of electronic sensors — and sensor problems — led to big warranty costs for OEMs.

Castaing described the 1990s as the time side airbags and electronic stability control began improving vehicle safety, digital engineering began dramatically cutting product development costs, and new college curriculums in the discipline of “mechatronics” began evolving, along with the hype of vehicles becoming electronics platforms on wheels.

Robertson described the current decade as one that started very upbeat and then grew over-optimistic about electronics applications and consumer interest in various technologies, from telematics to 42-volt electrical architectures to controversial machine-user interfaces such as BMW AG's iDrive.

However, by 2002, industry leaders were having frank discussions about reliability and warranty costs and questioning “the perceived inevitability of the inexorable growth of silicon” in vehicles, Robertson says.

Overall, organizers say they are happy with Convergence 2004. There were 202 exhibitors — the most ever — occupying 25% more space at Cobo Center compared with 2002. However, attendance was only about 7,500, 12% lower than the 2002 show tally. Organizers were hoping for close to 10,000 attendees.

A spokesperson blamed the shortfall on the economy and the closure of one of Detroit's main expressways for major repairs, which snarled traffic and made it difficult to make the trip downtown.