A Toyota Corvette and Other Predictions

Toyota Motor Corp. and General Motors Corp. merging? Ford Motor Co. uniting with Nissan Motor Co. Ltd. and DaimlerChrysler AG marrying up with Honda Motor Co. Ltd.?

Those, and other bold — perhaps off the mark — predictions and spirited debate come from a panel of experts at a recent conference in Dearborn, MI.

Jay Alix, co-founder and managing principal of turnaround specialist Questor Management Co. LLC, predicts, “Ten to 15 years from now, you'll see Toyota and General Motors merge, Ford and Nissan merge, and DaimlerChrysler and Honda merge. There'll be BMW and maybe a couple of the specialty makes, but the global marketplace will be controlled by those three companies.”

Alix also delights the audience by trading barbs with other panelists, including Lear Corp. Vice Chairman Jim Vanderberghe, who said some suppliers Lear has tried to fix, but failed to save from bankruptcy, probably didn't have good business models to start.

“Except for the ones that called us. We fixed them,” says Alix.

“Well, we fixed one of them that you fixed,” Vanderberghe shoots back.

Replies Alix: “If we have a problem that's so bad that we have to sell it to somebody else, we consider that a fix on our side.”