Death of a Segment: Minivans

The Chrysler minivan was one of the biggest game-changer vehicles of the second half of the 20th century. Today, the category is a quarter of what it once was and the automakers still in it in North America – Stellantis, Toyota, Honda and Kia – are fighting over a dwindling market of buyers. They plan to milk existing platforms for maximum profits.

The industry is looking at the slow death of a segment.

U.S. minivan sales totaled 306,000 in 2023, per Wards Intelligence data. That compares with 540,000 units in 2010, 1.3 million in 2000 and the same in 1995.

Stellantis is re-introducing the Chrysler Voyager minivan, a lower-contented Pacifica, to the public for the 2025 model year after selling it just as a fleet vehicle in 2023. It previously planned to drop it for 2025. The Chrysler Pacifica is the category leader, selling a total of 121,000 units in 2023 in the U.S.

The change is a result of dealer complaints, and Stellantis’s need to optimize production at its Windsor, ON, Canada plant that only makes minivans on a platform developed a decade ago that is not shared with any other Stellantis products. Stellantis, under tremendous pressure from Wall Street, dealers and labor, is delaying battery-electric-vehicle production in Canada and must wring as much profitable production as possible from the plant until its BEV plans accelerate.

“The 2025 Chrysler Voyager offers customers a well-equipped, budget-conscious minivan and reinforces our brand’s commitment to delivering choices in the segment Stellantis created more than 40 years ago and continues to lead,” says Chris Feuell, Chrysler brand CEO. The Voyager trim will put pressure on Kia, which imports its Carnival price leader from South Korea.

Toyota has made some upgrades to its Sienna minivan for 2025. Despite much lower sales than Pacifica/Voyager, Toyota has a manufacturing and pricing and profit advantage  because of its flexible manufacturing strategy.

The current Sienna platform was introduced in 2021. This fourth-generation Sienna featured a completely redesigned architecture, switching to a hybrid-only powertrain on the TNGA-K (Toyota New Global Architecture-K) platform. The architecture is shared with several other models in the Toyota lineup: Highlander, Highlander Hybrid, Lexus TX and Toyota Grand Highlander. All are built at Princeton, IN, so Toyota can flex volume of those models on the production lines based on consumer demand, says Aaron Credo, executive program manager for the Toyota Sienna.

For 2025, Toyota upgrades its kid hauler with a built-in vacuum and fridge on the top Platinum trim or bundled together on the Sienna Limited. It also has the standard-across-all-trims Toyota’s Advanced Rear Seat Reminder, newly developed to ensure a child is never left in the van.

It works via a radar sensor hidden behind the headliner, which scans for motion in the second and third rows when the car is turned off and locked. If it senses movement, even an infant’s chest rising and falling with normal breathing, the door lock beeps nine times. If a door isn’t opened within 90 seconds, the horn sounds until a door is opened.

Owners can also sign up to receive push notifications, text messages, and phone calls in the event an alert is needed. “We think that this technology will give us an advantage with customers and may even bring some into the category for the first time,” says Credo.

Even with these improvements and price strategies, the minivan category seems like a niche segment wheezing forward that will rely on flexible manufacturing strategies like Toyota’s. Honda’s Odyssey, for example, 8 years old since the last overhaul, is manufactured at the Honda Manufacturing of Alabama (HMA) plant in Lincoln, AL, which also produces the Honda Passport SUV, Honda Pilot SUV, and Honda Ridgeline pickup truck, all on the same platform.

Millennial families have largely rejected minivans in favor of CUVs and SUVs. Take Nora and David Long of Chatham, NJ. They have three active sons between the ages 8 and 11 – prime minivan customers if it was 1990. After the third boy arrived, the Millennial couple bought a fullsize GMC SUV. “No minivans. Not ever,” says Nora Long.

Families like the Longs have increasingly rejected minivans for several reasons. At the top of the list is the perception of minivans as less “cool” compared with CUVs and SUVs, which are seen as more rugged, versatile and visually appealing. Additionally, SUVs offer a combination of features that many families prioritize, such as higher ground clearance, off-road capabilities and more modern design.

That attitude is what drove Ford, General Motors and Nissan out of the category years ago.

Baby Boomers With Grandkids

But if the Longs are typical of Millennials, Baby Boomers, who drove the growth of minivans in the ’80s and ’90s, are still a lucrative audience, albeit in smaller volumes, as kids have been replaced with grandkids and active post-retirement lifestyles.

The exact percentage of minivan sales to empty nesters isn't readily available. But Toyota says it typically runs about 30% of sales and Chrysler and Toyota are targeting this demographic. Empty nesters, says Toyota’s Credo, are drawn to minivans due to their spaciousness, comfort and advanced features for long-distance travel. Chrysler and Toyota, in particular, have introduced new models with features tailored to older buyers, such as luxury trims and hybrid options. Not to be ignored is lower, easier egress compared with SUVs.

About 20% of total minivan sales go to fleets for rentals, where they are handy for traveling families or people moving to a new home. Combined with sales to older buyers, that equates to about half of today’s sales going to childless households.

And as Millennials age into retirement, it is not likely they will abandon their disdain for minivans just because they are in the market for knee and hip replacements.